The Cryosphere

Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations

  1. Julienne C. Stroeve1,*,
  2. Vladimir Kattsov2,
  3. Andrew Barrett1,
  4. Mark Serreze1,
  5. Tatiana Pavlova2,
  6. Marika Holland3,
  7. Walter N. Meier1

Article first published online: 25 AUG 2012

DOI: 10.1029/2012GL052676

Issue

Geophysical Research Letters

Geophysical Research Letters

Additional Information

How to Cite

Stroeve, J. C., V. Kattsov, A. Barrett, M. Serreze, T. Pavlova, M. Holland, and W. N. Meier (2012), Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L16502, doi:10.1029/2012GL052676.

Author Information

  1. 1

    National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA

  2. 2

    Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, Roshydromet, St. Petersburg, Russia

  3. 3

    National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA

*Corresponding author: J. C. Stroeve, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, 449 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309-0449, USA. (stroeve@kryos.colorado.edu)

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 25 AUG 2012
  2. Article first published online: 25 AUG 2012
  3. Manuscript Accepted: 17 JUL 2012
  4. Manuscript Revised: 16 JUL 2012
  5. Manuscript Received: 7 JUN 2012

Funded by

  • NOAA. Grant Number: NA10OAR4320142
  • NASA. Grant Number: NNX12AB75G
  • NSF. Grant Numbers: 0902065, 0902068
  • RFPR. Grant Numbers: 11-05-00734, 12-05-01069

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Keywords:

  • Arctic;
  • CMIP5;
  • sea ice

[1] The rapid retreat and thinning of the Arctic sea ice cover over the past several decades is one of the most striking manifestations of global climate change. Previous research revealed that the observed downward trend in September ice extent exceeded simulated trends from most models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3). We show here that as a group, simulated trends from the models contributing to CMIP5 are more consistent with observations over the satellite era (1979–2011). Trends from most ensemble members and models nevertheless remain smaller than the observed value. Pointing to strong impacts of internal climate variability, 16% of the ensemble member trends over the satellite era are statistically indistinguishable from zero. Results from the CMIP5 models do not appear to have appreciably reduced uncertainty as to when a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean will be realized.

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