Modelling future changes to the stratospheric source gas injection of biogenic bromocarbons



[1] Simulations with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) show a future increase in the stratospheric source gas injection (SGI) of biogenic very short-lived substances (VSLS). For 2000, the modelled SGI of bromine from VSLS is ∼1.7 parts per trillion (pptv) and largest over the tropical West Pacific. For 2100, this increases to ∼2.0 and ∼2.7 pptv when the model is forced with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The increase is largely due to stronger tropical deep convection transporting more CHBr3 to the lower stratosphere. For CH2Br2, CHBr2Cl, CH2BrCl and CHBrCl2, changes to primary oxidant OH determines their SGI contribution. Under RCP 4.5 (moderate warming), OH increases in a warmer, more humid troposphere. Under RCP 8.5 (extreme warming) OH decreases significantly due to a large methane increase, allowing greater SGI of bromine from these VSLS. Potentially enhanced VSLS emissions in the future would further increase these estimates.