Do Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) forecasts improve seasonal soil moisture prediction?

Authors

  • Kingtse C. Mo,

    Corresponding author
    1. Climate Prediction Center, NCEP, NWS, NOAA, College Park, Maryland, USA
    • Corresponding author: K. C. Mo, Climate Prediction Center, NCEP, NWS, NOAA, 5830 University Research Ct., College Park, MD 20740, USA. (kingtse@noaa.gov)

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  • Shraddhanand Shukla,

    1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
    2. Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA
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  • Dennis P. Lettenmaier,

    1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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  • Li-Chuan Chen

    1. Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
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Abstract

[1] We investigated whether seasonal soil moisture forecasts derived from a land surface model forced by seasonal climate forecast model outputs are more skillful than benchmark forecasts derived from the same land surface model but with forcings taken from resampled climatological precipitation, temperature and low level winds. For most forecast leads and over the western United States, soil moisture forecasts based on seasonal climate forecasts are no more skillful than the benchmark. For relatively short (one month) leads, the climate model-based forecasts are more skillful than the benchmark along a swath from the Gulf States to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and the Southwest monsoon region, where the climate model has skillful precipitation forecasts.

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