On the role of the ocean in projected atmospheric stability changes in the Atlantic polar low region
Article first published online: 18 DEC 2012
©2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 39, Issue 24, 28 December 2012
How to Cite
2012), On the role of the ocean in projected atmospheric stability changes in the Atlantic polar low region, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L24802, doi:10.1029/2012GL054016., , , and (
- Issue published online: 18 DEC 2012
- Article first published online: 18 DEC 2012
- Manuscript Accepted: 7 NOV 2012
- Manuscript Revised: 6 NOV 2012
- Manuscript Received: 25 SEP 2012
- Atlantic meridional overturning circulation;
- climate change;
 The occurrence of destructive mesoscale ‘polar low’ cyclones in the subpolar North Atlantic is projected to decline under anthropogenic change, due to an increase in atmospheric static stability. This letter reports on the role of changes in ocean circulation in shaping the atmospheric stability. In particular, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is projected to weaken in response to anthropogenic forcing, leading to a local minimum in warming in this region. The reduced warming is restricted to the lower troposphere, hence contributing to the increase in static stability. Linear correlation analysis of the CMIP3 climate model ensemble suggests that around half of the model uncertainty in the projected stability response arises from the varied response of the AMOC between models.