Skill of ENSEMBLES seasonal re-forecasts for malaria prediction in West Africa
Article first published online: 15 DEC 2012
©2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 39, Issue 23, 16 December 2012
How to Cite
2012), Skill of ENSEMBLES seasonal re-forecasts for malaria prediction in West Africa, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L23707, doi:10.1029/2012GL054040., and (
- Issue published online: 15 DEC 2012
- Article first published online: 15 DEC 2012
- Manuscript Accepted: 5 NOV 2012
- Manuscript Revised: 3 NOV 2012
- Manuscript Received: 1 OCT 2012
- climate impacts;
- ensemble forecasting;
- seasonal forecasting
 This study examines the performance of malaria-relevant climate variables from the ENSEMBLES seasonal ensemble re-forecasts for sub-Saharan West Africa, using a dynamic malaria model to transform temperature and rainfall forecasts into simulated malaria incidence and verifying these forecasts against simulations obtained by driving the malaria model with General Circulation Model-derived reanalysis. Two subregions of forecast skill are identified: the highlands of Cameroon, where low temperatures limit simulated malaria during the forecast period and interannual variability in simulated malaria is closely linked to variability in temperature, and northern Nigeria/southern Niger, where simulated malaria variability is strongly associated with rainfall variability during the peak rain months.