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Climate
On the statistical significance of surface air temperature trends in the Eurasian Arctic region
Article first published online: 11 DEC 2012
DOI: 10.1029/2012GL054244
©2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
1944-8007/asset/cover.gif?v=1&s=fe0fd1cbb5f42f812f7e32f208ad1e7c170bc13e "Geophysical Research Letters")
Additional Information
How to Cite
(2012), On the statistical significance of surface air temperature trends in the Eurasian Arctic region, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L23705, doi:10.1029/2012GL054244.
Publication History
- Issue published online: 11 DEC 2012
- Article first published online: 11 DEC 2012
- Manuscript Accepted: 6 NOV 2012
- Manuscript Received: 16 OCT 2012
- Abstract
- Article
- References
- Cited By
Keywords:
- Arctic;
- global warming;
- null models;
- statistical test;
- stochastic trends;
- temperature trends
[1] This study investigates the statistical significance of the trends of station temperature time series from the European Climate Assessment & Data archive poleward of 60°N. The trends are identified by different methods and their significance is assessed by three different null models of climate noise. All stations show a warming trend but only 17 out of the 109 considered stations have trends which cannot be explained as arising from intrinsic climate fluctuations when tested against any of the three null models. Out of those 17, only one station exhibits a warming trend which is significant against all three null models. The stations with significant warming trends are located mainly in Scandinavia and Iceland.