Papers on Seismology
Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten years after
Article first published online: 20 SEP 2012
Copyright 1991 by the American Geophysical Union.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth (1978–2012)
Volume 96, Issue B13, pages 21419–21431, 10 December 1991
How to Cite
1991), Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten years after, J. Geophys. Res., 96(B13), 21419–21431, doi:10.1029/91JB02210., and (
- Issue published online: 20 SEP 2012
- Article first published online: 20 SEP 2012
- Manuscript Accepted: 23 AUG 1991
- Manuscript Received: 2 AUG 1990
The seismic gap hypothesis states that earthquake hazard increases with time since the last large earthquake on certain faults or plate boundaries. One of the earliest and clearest applications of the seismic gap theory to earthquake forecasting was by McCann et al. (1979), who postulated zones of high, medium, and low seismic potential around the Pacific rim. In the 10 years since, there have been over 40 large (M ≥ 7.0) earthquakes, enough to test statistically the earlier forecast. We also analyze another forecast of long-term earthquake risk, that by Kelleher et al. (1973). The hypothesis of increased earthquake potential after a long quiet period can be rejected with a large confidence. The data suggest that, contrary to these forecasts, places of recent earthquake activity have larger than usual seismic hazard, whereas the segments of the circum-Pacific belt with no large earthquakes in recent decades have remained relatively quiet. The “clustering” of earthquake times does not contradict the plate tectonic model, which constrains only the long-term average slip rate, not the regularity of earthquakes.