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Workshop participants assess Monte Carlo simulations in oceanography

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Abstract

Oceanographers enthusiastically integrate global ocean circulation models in conjunction with atmospheric models over periods of thousands of years in order to assess future climate states—without actually knowing the skill of their ocean models. Oceanic circulation models represent the turbulent ocean as a laminar flow. This representation, except in the most fortuitous of circumstances, involves some grave errors whose effects need to be understood and quantified. Usually, models are validated and/or calibrated by comparing their predictions with observations. This has worked well for weather prediction models, but we cannot wait out climate changes.

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