Areal and point precipitation intensity changes: Implications for the application of climate models



It is demonstrated that the long-term-mean intensity of an area-mean precipitation timeseries and the long-term-mean intensities at the points within the area of interest can change by different relative amounts if the spatial scale of precipitation events changes. This effect is problematic when trying to derive fine-scale climate change scenarios from the statistics of area-mean grid-box precipitation simulated by climate models. Examples of this effect are given using model predictions of changing intensity and changing precipitation type (synoptic or convective).