Reply [to Comment on Earthquake precursors: Banished forever?] Comment: Unpredictability of earthquakes–Truth or fiction?


  • Alexander Gusev

    1. Institute of Volcanic Geology and Geochemistry and Kamchatka EMSD, Geophysical Service, Russian Academy of Sciences, Petropalovsk-Kamchatskii
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I agree with many of C. Lomnitz's points. I only wish to add that by the word “paradigm” I mean the entity as T. Kuhn defines it in The Nature of Scientific Revolutions, that is, a belief system considered as the truth by a scientific community for a certain amount of time. Kuhn's idea of scientific progress is by radical paradigm shifts. Earthquake prediction (EP) is a good example. It was a nonscience in 1960, and C. Richter warned every student in his Elementary Seismology that it is “a marsh light,” appealing to one from the darkness but leading those who respond to the swamp.