Climatic Impact Assessment Program


  • Thomas M. Donahue,

  • Alan J. Grobecker


As president of the Section of Solar-Planetary Relationships of the American Geophysical Union I agreed last year, in cooperation with the American Meteorological Society, to sanction, in the name of our union, a scientific review of the Climatic Impact Assessment Program draft monographs 1, 3, and 4. I not only suggested names of referees but, upon request, participated in the process myself.

The ‘Executive Summary of the Report of Findings’ by the DOT in my opinion conceals the logical conclusions of the CIAP study as it was presented in the monographs we saw and criticized: it introduces new concepts concerning ultimate SST fleet sizes, flight times, and emission standards without candidly stating the ultimate effect of such fleets by the early twenty-first century on the stratosphere; and it, together with uncorrected stories based on it and press interviews accompanying its release, have caused serious loss of credibility to atmospheric scientists.