Temporal coherence in North Pacific sea-surface temperature patterns


  • Jerome Namias,

  • Robert M. Born


Temporal coherence between monthly mean temperature patterns for the sea surface of the North Pacific is far greater than any known meteorological coherence, has a smooth non-Markovian die-away with increasing lag, and is greatest when preceded by cold season months. When stratified according to initial month, the data show a striking tendency for pattern recurrence from one nonsummer month to subsequent months out to two years except for summer. Apparently this pattern recurrence is due to storage of anomalously cold or warm water that is shielded by a shallow layer in summer but is stirred up to the surface by the increased wind stress during cold months.