Geomagnetic modification of the mid-latitude ionosphere: Toward a strategy for the improved forecasting of ƒ0F2
Article first published online: 7 DEC 2012
Copyright 1989 by the American Geophysical Union.
Volume 24, Issue 1, pages 99–111, January-February 1989
How to Cite
1989), Geomagnetic modification of the mid-latitude ionosphere: Toward a strategy for the improved forecasting of ƒ0F2, Radio Sci., 24(1), 99–111, doi:10.1029/RS024i001p00099., and (
- Issue published online: 7 DEC 2012
- Article first published online: 7 DEC 2012
- Manuscript Accepted: 1 NOV 1988
- Manuscript Received: 1 APR 1988
The reduction of maximum usable frequency (MUF) during a geomagnetic storm represents a serious hindrance to the efficient operation of HF transmission links. This paper outlines a new approach to the modeling and forecasting of ƒ0F2 at quiet and disturbed times. Statistical analyses of ionosonde data from the Argentine Islands (65°S) have been used to define patterns for the main phase effects of mid-latitude ionospheric storms. Extended to a number of stations, these could be incorporated into algorithms to permit the forecasting of MUF for a few hours ahead and enhance the frequency management of shortwave radio communication. Data from a complete solar cycle, 1971–1981, are used to determine the errors in the forecasts and to demonstrate that a useful advantage can be attained by this method. The root-mean-square error in ƒ0F2 for 90,175 samples is 15.6%, which compares favorably with those obtained using forecasts based upon quiet time values (20.4%) or the previous day's measurements (18%). Studies of error distribution with respect to local time, season, and phase of the solar cycle highlight limitations in the technique but also indicate avenues to further improvement.