Case 20: Drought-Earthquake Relation and Medium-Range Prediction of Great Earthquakes
- Max Wyss
Published Online: 3 APR 2013
Copyright 1991 American Geophysical Union.
Evaluation of Proposed Earthquake Precursors
How to Cite
Qingguo, G. (1991) Case 20: Drought-Earthquake Relation and Medium-Range Prediction of Great Earthquakes, in Evaluation of Proposed Earthquake Precursors (ed M. Wyss), American Geophysical Union, Washington, D. C.. doi: 10.1029/SP032p0093
- Published Online: 3 APR 2013
- Published Print: 1 JAN 1991
Print ISBN: 9780875907840
Online ISBN: 9781118667873
- Earthquake prediction—Evaluation
In order to approach the medium-range prediction of great earthquakes with Ms > 6, the author investigated the relation between drought and earthquakes and believed that the drought-earthquake relation is an effective method for the medium-range prediction of great earthquakes.
When the author studied the meteorological effects on the earthquake preparation, he found that the epicentral regions of great earthquakes with M≥6 are usually dry for one to three and a half years before earthquakes. The drought area changes with the earthquake magnitude proportionally. If an earthquake occurs in the 3rd year of drought, its magnitude is 0.5 higher than that in the 1st year of the drought.
According to the above-mentioned facts, the author puts forth the medium-range prediction method and principle of great earthquakes by the drought-earthquake relation: (i) the magnitude is defined in accordance with the area of the drought regions; (ii) the possible risk area is defined on the basis of the location of the drought regions; (iii) in the possible time prediction, it is generally predicted in 1–2 years after the drought and if it is predicted in the 3rd year, the magnitude should be 0.5 higher.