The sensitivity of reservoir returns to the availability of design data


  • Brian A. Cornish


When an irrigation system is designed to maximize the economic return from the system, the final design depends to a large extent on the values of the statistical parameters of the inflows into the system. In all practical situations these statistical parameters are not known with certainty but are estimated from the available historical record of the flows. A simulation technique has been devised to determine the sensitivity of the economic return from an irrigation system to various lengths of historical flow records when the criterion of the design is to maximize the economic return. The simulation model has also been used to find the sensitivity of the returns to changes in various other system parameters.