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Keywords:

  • Alaska;
  • Branta bernicla nigricans;
  • breeding probability;
  • capture–recapture;
  • density dependence;
  • life-history;
  • Pollock’s robust design;
  • reproduction;
  • temporary emigration

Summary

  • 1
    We estimated age-specific probability of breeding for black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans Lawrence) (hereafter brant) at the Tutakoke River Colony, Alaska, during a series of years in which local breeding density and juvenile mortality both increased. We use these analyses to examine demographic responses to increased population density.
  • 2
    Estimates of breeding probability were based on Kendall & Nichols (1995) full-likelihood modification of Pollock’s (1982) robust design applied to observations of uniquely colour-banded brant.
  • 3
    Breeding probability varied with female age but not across years, indicating lack of response to increased population density. Annual probability of breeding increased from 0·67 ± 0·042 for 2-year-old females to 0·90 ± 0·024 for females 5 years old or older.
  • 4
    Annual breeding probability of males ≥ 5 years old was 0·78 ± 0·03. Lower breeding probability of males compared to females probably reflects dispersal of males whose mates died.
  • 5
    Lower juvenile survival appears to be a general response to increased density in large herbivorous birds and mammals, while changes in adult survival and reproductive investment may be more variable.