• Competing risks;
  • Limited duration model;
  • Medical students;
  • Multilevel models;
  • Student drop-out (non-completion) probabilities;
  • Survival analysis

Summary.  From individual level longitudinal data for two entire cohorts of medical students in UK universities, we use multilevel models to analyse the probability that an individual student will drop out of medical school. We find that academic preparedness—both in terms of previous subjects studied and levels of attainment therein—is the major influence on withdrawal by medical students. Additionally, males and more mature students are more likely to withdraw than females or younger students respectively. We find evidence that the factors influencing the decision to transfer course differ from those affecting the decision to drop out for other reasons.