Forecasting models for human resources in health care

Authors

  • Linda O’Brien-Pallas RN PhD,

    1. Professor, Faculty of Nursing, University of Toronto Co-Director, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada Professor and Associate Dean (Nursing), Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Nursing, McMaster University Co-Director, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada Professor and Dean, Faculty of Nursing, University of Toronto Co-Investigator, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada Doctoral Fellow, Faculty of Nursing, University of Toronto Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto Associate Professor, School of Nursing, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada Senior Research Associate (former), Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada Research Officer, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
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  • Andrea Baumann RN PhD,

    1. Professor, Faculty of Nursing, University of Toronto Co-Director, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada Professor and Associate Dean (Nursing), Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Nursing, McMaster University Co-Director, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada Professor and Dean, Faculty of Nursing, University of Toronto Co-Investigator, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada Doctoral Fellow, Faculty of Nursing, University of Toronto Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto Associate Professor, School of Nursing, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada Senior Research Associate (former), Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada Research Officer, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
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  • Gail Donner RN PhD,

    1. Professor, Faculty of Nursing, University of Toronto Co-Director, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada Professor and Associate Dean (Nursing), Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Nursing, McMaster University Co-Director, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada Professor and Dean, Faculty of Nursing, University of Toronto Co-Investigator, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada Doctoral Fellow, Faculty of Nursing, University of Toronto Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto Associate Professor, School of Nursing, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada Senior Research Associate (former), Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada Research Officer, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
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  • Gail Tomblin Murphy RN MN PhD(C),

    1. Professor, Faculty of Nursing, University of Toronto Co-Director, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada Professor and Associate Dean (Nursing), Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Nursing, McMaster University Co-Director, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada Professor and Dean, Faculty of Nursing, University of Toronto Co-Investigator, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada Doctoral Fellow, Faculty of Nursing, University of Toronto Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto Associate Professor, School of Nursing, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada Senior Research Associate (former), Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada Research Officer, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
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  • Jacquelyn Lochhaas-Gerlach RN BScN MScN,

    1. Professor, Faculty of Nursing, University of Toronto Co-Director, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada Professor and Associate Dean (Nursing), Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Nursing, McMaster University Co-Director, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada Professor and Dean, Faculty of Nursing, University of Toronto Co-Investigator, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada Doctoral Fellow, Faculty of Nursing, University of Toronto Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto Associate Professor, School of Nursing, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada Senior Research Associate (former), Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada Research Officer, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
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  • Marcia Luba BA MEd

    1. Professor, Faculty of Nursing, University of Toronto Co-Director, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada Professor and Associate Dean (Nursing), Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Nursing, McMaster University Co-Director, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada Professor and Dean, Faculty of Nursing, University of Toronto Co-Investigator, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada Doctoral Fellow, Faculty of Nursing, University of Toronto Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto Associate Professor, School of Nursing, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada Senior Research Associate (former), Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada Research Officer, Nursing Effectiveness, Utilization and Outcomes Research Unit, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
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Linda O’Brien-Pallas, Faculty of Nursing, 50 St George Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5S 3H4. E-mail: l.obrien.pallas@utoronto.ca

Abstract

Forecasting models for human resources in health care

This article is a review of the approaches published between 1996 and 1999 that have been used to forecast human resource requirements for nursing. Much of the work to date generally does not consider the complex factors that influence health human resources (HHR). They also do not consider the effect of HHR decisions on population health, provider outcomes such as stress, and the cost of a decision made. Supply and demand approaches have dominated. Forecasting is limited, too, by the availability of reliable and valid data bases for examining supply and use of nursing personnel across sectors. Three models – needs based, utilization based, and effective demand based – provide substantially different estimates of future HHR need. The methods of analysis employed for forecasting range from descriptive to predictive and are borrowed from demography, epidemiology, economics, and industrial engineering. Simulation models offer the most promise for the future. The forecasting methods described have demonstrated their accuracy and usefulness for specific situations, but none has proven accurate for long-term forecasting or for estimating needs for large geographical areas or populations.

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