Forecasting plant migration rates: managing uncertainty for risk assessment
Article first published online: 14 MAY 2003
Journal of Ecology
Volume 91, Issue 3, pages 341–347, June 2003
How to Cite
Higgins, S. I., Clark, J. S., Nathan, R., Hovestadt, T., Schurr, F., Fragoso, J. M. V., Aguiar, M. R., Ribbens, E. and Lavorel, S. (2003), Forecasting plant migration rates: managing uncertainty for risk assessment. Journal of Ecology, 91: 341–347. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2745.2003.00781.x
- Issue published online: 14 MAY 2003
- Article first published online: 14 MAY 2003
- Received 28 August 2002 revision accepted 24 February 2003
- spread rate;
- climate change;
- range shift;
- seed dispersal;
- long-distance dispersal
- 1Anthropogenic changes in the global climate are shifting the potential ranges of many plant species.
- 2Changing climates will allow some species the opportunity to expand their range, others may experience a contraction in their potential range, while the current and future ranges of some species may not overlap. Our capacity to generalize about the threat these range shifts pose to plant diversity is limited by many sources of uncertainty.
- 3In this paper we summarize sources of uncertainty for migration forecasts and suggest a research protocol for making forecasts in the context of uncertainty.