Forecasting and assessing the impact of urban sprawl in coastal watersheds along eastern Lake Michigan

  1. Bryan C. Pijanowski1,*,
  2. Bradley Shellito2,
  3. Snehal Pithadia3,
  4. Konstantinos Alexandridis4

Article first published online: 24 NOV 2002

DOI: 10.1046/j.1440-1770.2002.00203.x

Issue

Lakes & Reservoirs: Research & Management

Lakes & Reservoirs: Research & Management

Volume 7, Issue 3, pages 271–285, September 2002

Additional Information

How to Cite

Pijanowski, B. C., Shellito, B., Pithadia, S. and Alexandridis, K. (2002), Forecasting and assessing the impact of urban sprawl in coastal watersheds along eastern Lake Michigan. Lakes & Reservoirs: Research & Management, 7: 271–285. doi: 10.1046/j.1440-1770.2002.00203.x

Author Information

  1. 1

    Basic Science and Remote Sensing Initiative, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA

  2. 2

    Department of Geography, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA

  3. 3

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA

  4. 4

    Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA

* *Corresponding author. Email: pijanows@msu.edu Present address: Department of Zoology, 203 Natural Science Building, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan 48824, USA.

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 24 NOV 2002
  2. Article first published online: 24 NOV 2002
  3. Accepted for publication 24 June 2002.

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Keywords:

  • coastal watersheds;
  • ecological assessment;
  • Lake Michigan;
  • land-use change;
  • prime farmland;
  • riparian zones;
  • urban sprawl

Abstract

The Land Transformation Model (LTM), which has been developed to forecast urban-use changes in a grid-based geographical information system, was used to explore the consequences of future urban changes to the years 2020 and 2040 using non-urban sprawl and urban-sprawl trends. The model was executed over a large area containing nine of the major coastal watersheds of eastern Lake Michigan. We found that the Black-Macatawa and Lower Grand watersheds will experience the most urban change in the next 20–40 years. These changes will likely impact the hydrological budget, might reduce the amount of nitrogen exported to these watersheds, result in a significant loss of prime agricultural land and reduce the amount of forest cover along the streams in many of these watersheds. The results of this work have significant implications to the Lake Michigan Lake Area Management Plan (LaMP) that was recently developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency.

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