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The macroecology of population dynamics: taxonomic and biogeographic patterns in population cycles

Authors

  • Kendall,

    1. National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California, 735 State St., Suite 300, Santa Barbara, California 93101-5504, U.S.A. After 1 January 1999: Donald Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, U.S.A.,
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  • Prendergast,

    1. Centre for Population Biology, Imperial College at Silwood Park, Ascot, Berkshire, SL5 7PY, U.K.,
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  • Bjørnstad

    1. National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California, 735 State St., Suite 300, Santa Barbara, California 93101-5504, U.S.A. and Division of Zoology, Biological Institute, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.
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Bruce E.Kendall E-mail: kendall@nceas.ucsb.edu

Abstract

Regular cycles in population abundance are fascinating phenomena, but are they common in natural populations? How are they distributed among taxa? Are there differences between different regions of the world, or along latitudinal gradients? Using the new Global Population Dynamics Database we analysed nearly 700 long (25 + years) time series of animal field populations, looking for large-scale patterns in cycles. Nearly 30% of the time series were cyclic. Cycle incidence varied among taxonomic classes, being most common in mammal and fish populations, but only in fish did cycle incidence vary among orders. Cycles were equally common in European and North American populations, but were more common in Atlantic fish than Pacific fish. The incidence of cycles increased with latitude in mammals only. There was no latitudinal gradient in cycle period, but cycle amplitude declined with latitude in some groups of fish. Even after considering the biases in the data source and expected type I error, population cycles seem common enough to warrant ecological attention.

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