The Arctic Oscillation predicts effects of climate change in two trophic levels in a high-arctic ecosystem

  1. Ronny Aanes1,2,
  2. Bernt-Erik Sæther2,*,
  3. Fiona M. Smith3,
  4. Elisabeth J. Cooper3,
  5. Philip A. Wookey4,
  6. Nils Are Øritsland5

Article first published online: 17 MAY 2002

DOI: 10.1046/j.1461-0248.2002.00340.x

Issue

Ecology Letters

Ecology Letters

Volume 5, Issue 3, pages 445–453, May 2002

Additional Information

How to Cite

Aanes, R., Sæther, B.-E., Smith, F. M. , Cooper, E. J. , Wookey, P. A. and Øritsland, N. A. (2002), The Arctic Oscillation predicts effects of climate change in two trophic levels in a high-arctic ecosystem. Ecology Letters, 5: 445–453. doi: 10.1046/j.1461-0248.2002.00340.x

Author Information

  1. 1

    Norwegian Polar Institute, PO Box 505, N-9171 Longyearbyen, Norway,

  2. 2

    Department of Zoology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway,

  3. 3

    Norwegian Polar Institute, Polar Environmental Centre, N-9296 Tromsø, Norway,

  4. 4

    Department of Earth Sciences, Physical Geography, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, S-752 36, Uppsala, Sweden,

  5. 5

    Outhere AS, Ovenbakken 14 B, N-1361 Osteraas, Norway

* Bernt-Erik Sæther E-mail: Bernt-Erik.Sather@chembio.ntnu.no

  1. Editor, P. A. Marquet

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 17 MAY 2002
  2. Article first published online: 17 MAY 2002
  3. Manuscript received 7 December 2001, First decision made 17 January 2002, accepted 26 February 2002

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Keywords:

  • Arctic Oscillation;
  • Cassiope tetragona;
  • climate change;
  • plant–herbivore interactions;
  • Svalbard reindeer

Abstract

During recent decades there has been a change in the circulation of atmospheric pressure throughout the Northern Hemisphere. These variations are expressed in the recently described Arctic Oscillation (AO), which has shown an upward trend (associated with winter warming in the eastern Arctic) during the last three decades. We analysed a 12-year time series on growth of Cassiope tetragona (Lapland Cassiope) and a 21-year time series on abundance of a Svalbard reindeer population. High values of the AO index were associated with reduced plant growth and reindeer population growth rate. The North Atlantic Oscillation index was not able to explain a significant proportion of the variance in either plant growth or reindeer population fluctuations. Thus, the AO index may be a better predictor for ecosystem effects of climate change in certain high-arctic areas compared to the NAO index.

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