Spatial and temporal distribution of bioclimatic potential for the Codling moth and the Colorado potato beetle in Norway: model predictions versus climate and field data from the 1990s


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Abstract 1 Based on climate data from a network of agrometeorological stations in Norway, the effects of current and future climate regimes on the spatial and temporal distribution of the Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) and the establishment potential of the Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata) were investigated.

2 The study was accomplished using climex, a dynamic climate matching- and climate response estimation model, which predicts potential distribution of an organism based on its known geographical distribution.

3 Validation of the climex model predictions for C. pomonella against field data on spatial distribution of the species in Norway resulted in a refined set of climate response parameters for C. pomonella. Temporal occurrence of C. pomonella seems to be affected by climate (temperature) and insecticide treatment against the Apple fruit moth (Argyresthia conjugella) in the previous season.

4 Climate change scenarios (0.1 °C increase per degree in latitude in daily maximum and minimum temperatures) indicated an extension of the potential geographical range for C. pomonella, and 23 new locations were found favourable for its long-term survival. The abundance and pest status of C. pomonella could increase dramatically in those locations where the species is already established.

5 Leptinotarsa decemlineata would only temporarily find suitable climate conditions in Norway and hence only be able to establish interim populations in a few regions under current climate conditions. Climate change scenarios for L. decemlineata indicated that the species would be able to establish as far north as 64°N, mainly in the inland of eastern Norway.

6 In general, the methods applied support the process of decreasing the uncertainty both in our knowledge about the pests themselves and about the environment, which are crucial elements in predicting whether a species is able to establish in a new area.