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Profiles of Older Medicare Decedents


Address correspondence to Dr. June R. Lunney, CICD, RAND, 1200 South Hayes Street MSC 6352, Arlington, VA 22202-5050. E-mail:


OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the usefulness of a clinical scheme to classify older decedents to better understand the issues associated with healthcare use and costs in the last year of life.

DESIGN: We analyzed Medicare claims data for a random sample of 0.1% of all Medicare beneficiaries with expenditures between 1993 and 1998. This sample yielded 7,966 deaths.

SETTING: Medicare claims data.

PARTICIPANTS: Medicare beneficiaries.

MEASUREMENTS: We classified decedents into groups representing four trajectories at the end of life: sudden death, terminal illness, organ failure, and frailty.

RESULTS: Ninety-two percent of decedents were captured by the profiling strategy. The four trajectory groups had distinct patterns of demographics, care delivery, and Medicare expenditures. Frailty was a dominant pattern, with 47% of all decedents, whereas sudden death claimed only 7%; cancer claimed 22%, and organ system failure, 16%.

CONCLUSIONS: The clinical scheme to classify decedents appears to fit most decedents and to form groups with substantial clinical differences. Acknowledging the differences among these groups may be a fruitful way to evaluate expenditures and develop strategies to improve care at the end of life.