SEARCH

SEARCH BY CITATION

References

  • Akaike, H. Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle In Petrov, B. N., Csaki, F. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 2nd international symposium on information theory 1973 Budapest: Akademiai Kiado 267281
  • Allan, L. G. A note on measurement of contingency between two binary variables in judgment tasks. Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society. 1980 15 147149
  • Allan, L. G. Human contingency judgments: Rule based or associative?. Psychological Bulletin 1993 114 435448
  • Allan, L. G., Jenkins, H. M. The judgment of contingency and the nature of the response alternatives. Canadian Journal of Psychology. 1980 34 111
  • Allan, L. G., Jenkins, H. M. The effect of representations of binary variables on judgment of influence. Learning and Motivation. 1983 14 381405
  • Anderson, J. R. The adaptive character of thought 1990 Hillsdal, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc
  • Anderson, J. R., Sheu, C.-F. Causal inferences as perceptual judgments. Memory & Cognition 1995 23 510524
  • Arkes, H. R., Harkness, A. R. Estimates of contingency between two dichotomous variables. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. 1983 112 117135
  • Baker, A. G., Berbrier, M. W., Vallée-Tourangeau, F. Judgements of a 2 × 2 contingency table: Sequential processing and the learning curve. The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 1989 41B 6597
  • Baker, A. G., Murphy, R. A., Vallée-Tourangeau, E. Associative and normative accounts of causal induction: Reacting to versus understanding a cause In Shanks, D. R., Holyoak, K. J., Medin, D. L. (Eds.), The psychology of learning and motivation: Vol. 34. Causal learning 1996 London: Academic 146
  • Bishop, Y. M. M., Fienberg, S. E., Holland, P. W. Discrete multivariate analysis: Theory and practice 1975 Cambridg, MA: MIT Press.
  • Blackwell, H. R. Neural theories of simple visual discriminations. Journal of the Optical Society of America. 1963 53 129160
  • Brier, G. W., Allen, R. A. Verification of weather forecasts In Malone, T. F. (Ed.), Compendium of meteorology: Prepared under the direction of the committee on the compendium of meteorology 1951 Boston: American Meteorological Society 841848
  • Buehner, M. J., Cheng, P. W., Clifford, D. From covariation to causation: A test of the assumption of causal power. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition. 2003 29 11191140
  • Burnham, K. P., Anderson, D. R. Model selection and inference: A practical information-theoretic approach 1998 New York: Springer-Verlag
  • Busemeyer, J. R. Intuitive statistical estimation In Anderson, N. H. (Ed.), Contributions to information integration theory: Volume 1 cognition 1991 Hillsdal, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc 187215
  • Chapman, G. B., Robbins, S. J. Cue interaction in human contingency judgment. Memory & Cognition. 1990 18 537545
  • Chater, N., Oaksford, M., Nakisa, R., Redington, M. Fast, frugal, and rational: How rational norms explain behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 2003 90 6366
  • Chatlosh, D. L., Neunaber, D. J., Wasserman, E. A. Response–outcome contingency: Behavioral and judgmental effects of appetitive and aversive outcomes. Learning and Motivation. 1985 16 134
  • Cheng, P. W. From covariation to causation: A causal power theory. Psychological Review. 1997 104 367405
  • Cheng, P. W., Holyoak, K. J. Complex adaptive systems as intuitive statisticians: Causality, contingency, and prediction In Roitblat, H. L., Meyer, J.-A. (Eds.), Comparative approaches to cognitive science 1995 Cambridg, MA: MIT Press 271302
  • Cheng, P. W., Novick, L. R. A probabilistic contrast model of causal induction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 1990 58 545567
  • Cheng, P. W., Novick, L. R. Covariation in natural causal induction. Psychological Review. 1992 99 365382
  • Cohen, J. A coefficient of agreement for nominal scales. Educational and Psychological Measurement. 1960 20 3746
  • Cohen, J. Weighted kappa: Nominal scale agreement with provision for scaled disagreement or partial credit. Psychological Bulletin. 1968 70 213220
  • Crocker, J. Biased questions in judgment of covariations studies. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. 1982 8 214220
  • Danks, D. Equilibria of the Rescorla–Wagner model. Journal of Mathematical Psychology. 2003 47 109121
  • Dennis, J. E. Jr., Gay, D. M., Welsch, R. E. An adaptive nonlinear least-squares algorithm. ACM Transactions on Mathematical Software. 1981 7 348368
  • Edwards, A. W. F. The measure of association in a 2 × 2 table. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (General). 1963 126 109114
  • Edwards, J. H. A note on the practical interpretation of 2 × 2 tables. British Journal of Preventive and Social Medicine. 1957 11 7378
  • Einhorn, H. J., Hogarth, R. M. Judging probable cause. Psychological Bulletin. 1986 99 319
  • Evans, J., St, B. T. Bias in human reasoning: Causes and consequences 1989 Hillsdal, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc
  • Evans, J., St, B. T., Over, D. E. Rationality and reasoning 1996a Hove England: Psychology Press
  • Evans, J., St, B. T., Over, D. E. Rationality in the selection task: Epistemic utility versus uncertainty reduction. Psychological Review 1996b 103 356363
  • Finley, J. P. Tornado predictions. American Meteorological Journal. 1884 1 8588
  • Fisk, A. D., Schneider, W. Memory as a function of attention level of processing and automatization. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition. 1984 10 181197
  • Fleiss, J. L. Measuring nominal scale agreement among many raters. Psychological Bulletin. 1971 76 378382
  • Friedrich, J. Primary error detection and minimization (PEDMIN) strategies in social cognition: A reinterpretationi of confirmation bias phenomena. Psychological Review. 1993 100 298319
  • Gigerenzer, G. Adaptive thinking: Rationality in the real world 2000 Oxford, England: Oxford University Press
  • Gigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U. Overcoming diculties in bayesian reasoning: A reply to Lewis and Keren (1999) and Mellers and McGraw (1999). Psychological Review. 1999 106 425430.
  • Gigerenzer, G., Murray, D. J. Cognition as intuitive statistics 1987 Hillsdal, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc
  • Gillund, G., Shiffrin, R. M. A retrieval model for both recognition and recall. Psychological Review. 1984 91 167
  • Good, I. J. A causal calculus (I). The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 1961 11 305318
  • Good, I. J. A causal calculus (II). The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 1962 12 4351
  • Goodman, L. A. The multivariate analysis of qualitative data: Interactions among multiple classfications. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1970 65 226256
  • Goodman, L. A., Kruskal, W. H. Measures of association for cross classifications. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1954 49 732764
  • Goodman, L. A., Kruskal, W. H. Measures of association for cross classifications, III: Approximate sampling theory. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1963 58 310364
  • Green, D. M., Swets, J. A. Signal detection theory and psychophysics 19661988 Los Alto, CA: Peninsula (Original work published 1966)
  • Griffths, T. L., Tenenbaum, J. B. Structure and strength in causal induction. Cognitive Psychology 2005 51 334384
  • Hanssen, A. W., Kuipers, W. J. A. On the relationship between frequency of rain and various meteorological parameters. Mededelingen en Verhandelingen. 1965 18 215
  • Hart, J. T. Memory and the feeling-of-knowing experience. Journal of Educational Psychology. 1965 56 208216
  • Hattori, M. Ingakihou-no niyouin heuristic model [A dual-factor heuristic model of causal induction]. Cognitive Studies: Bulletin of the Japanese Cognitive Science Society. 2001 8 444453
  • Hattori, M. A quantitative model of optimal data selection in Wason's selection task. The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 2002 55A 12411272
  • Heidke, P. Berechnung des erfolges und der güte der windstärkevorhersagen im sturmwarnungsdienst [Calculation of the success and goodness of strong wind forecasts in the storm warning service]. Geografiska Annaler. 1926 8 301349
  • Holland, J. H., Holyoak, K. J., Nisbett, R. E., Thagard, P. R. Induction: Processes of inference, learning, and discovery 1986 Cambridg, MA: MIT Press
  • Hurvich, C., Tsai, C.-L. Regression and time series model selection in small samples. Biometrika. 1989 76 297307
  • Inhelder, B., Piaget, J. Parsons, A., Milgram, S. The growth of logical thinking from childhood to adolescence: An essay on the construction of formal operational structures 1958 London: Routledge & Kegan Paul
  • Jenkins, H. M., Ward, W. C. Judgment of contingency between responses and outcomes. Psychological Monographs: General and Applied. 1965 79 117
  • Kao, S.-F., Wasserman, E. A. Assessment of an information integration account of contingency judgment with examination of subjective cell importance and method of information presentation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition. 1993 19 13631386
  • Kareev, Y. Seven (indeed, plus or minus two) and the detection of correlations. Psychological Review. 2000 107 397402
  • Klauer, K. C. On the normative justification for information gain in Wason's selection task. Psychological Review. 1999 106 215222
  • Klayman, J., Ha, Y.-W. Confirmation, disconfirmation and information in hypothesis testing. Psychological Review. 1987 94 211228
  • Lagnado, D. A., Sloman, S. A. The advantage of timely intervention. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition. 2004 30 856876
  • Landis, J. R., Koch, G. G. A review of statistical methods in the analysis of data arising from observer reliability stuies (Part 1). Statistica Neerlandica 1975a 29 101123
  • Landis, J. R., Koch, G. G. A review of statistical methods in the analysis of data arising from observer reliability stuies (Part 2). Statistica Neerlandica 1975b 29 151161.
  • Landis, J. R., Koch, G. G. The measurement of observer agreement for categorical data. Biometrics. 1977 33 159174
  • Light, R. J. Measures of response agreement for qualitative data: Some generalizations and alternatives. Psychological Bulletin. 1971 76 365377
  • Lober, K., Shanks, D. R. Is causal induction based on causal power? Critique of Cheng (1997). Psychological Review. 2000 107 195212
  • Luce, R. D. Individual choice behavior: A theoretical analysis 1959 New York: Wiley
  • Luce, R. D. Detection and recognition In Luce, R. D., Bush, R. R., Galanter, E. (Eds.), Handbook of mathematical psychology 1963 Vol. 1 New York: Wiley 103189
  • Mandel, D. R., Lehman, D. R. Integration of contingency information in judgments of cause, covariation, and probability. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. 1998 127 269285
  • McCarthy, J., Hayes, P. J. Some philosophical problems from the standpoint of artificial intelligence In Michie, D. (Ed.), Machine intelligence 1969 Vol. 4 Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press 463502
  • McKenzie, C. R. M. The accuracy of intuitive judgment strategires: Covariation assessment and Bayesian inference. Cognitive Psychology. 1994 26 209239
  • McKenzie, C. R. M., Ferreira, V. S., Mikkelsen, L. A., McDermott, K. J., Skrable, R. P. Do conditional hypotheses target rare events?. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 2001 85 291309
  • McKenzie, C. R. M., Mikkelsen, L. A. The psychological side of Hempel's paradox of confirmation. Psychonomic Bulletin and Review. 2000 7 360366
  • McKenzie, C. R. M., Mikkelsen, L. A. A Bayesian view of covariation assessment. Cognitive Psychology. 2007 54 3361
  • McKoon, G., Ratcliff, R. Inference during reading. Psychological Review. 1992 99 440466
  • Mill, J. S. A system of logic ratiocinative and inductive: Being a connected view of the principles of evidence and the methods of scientific investigation 18431973 Vols. 7, 8 Toronto: University of Toronto Press (Original work published 1843)
  • Nelson, T. O. A comparison of current measures of the accuracy of feeling-of-knowing predictions. Psychological Bulletin. 1984 95 109133
  • Neunaber, D. J., Wasserman, E. A. The effects of unidirectional versus bidirectional rating procedures on college students' judgments of response–outcome contingency. Learning and Motivation. 1986 17 162179
  • Nickerson, R. S. Hempel's paradox and Wason's selection task: Logical and psychological puzzles of confirmation. Thinking and Reasoning. 1996 2 131
  • Nisbett, R., Ross, L. Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment 1980 Englewood Cliff, NJ: Prentice Hall
  • Oaksford, M., Chater, N. Against logicist cognitive science. Mind & Language 1991 6 138
  • Oaksford, M., Chater, N. Reasoning theories and bounded rationality In Manktelow, K. I., Over, D. E. (Eds.), Rationality: Psychological and philosophical perspectives 1993 London: Routledge 3160
  • Oaksford, M., Chater, N. A rational analysis of the selection task as optimal data selection. Psychological Review. 1994 101 608631
  • Oaksford, M., Chater, N. Theories of reasoning and the computational explanation of everyday inference. Thinking and Reasoning. 1995 1 121152
  • Oaksford, M., Chater, N. Rational models of cognition 1998a Oxford England: Oxford University Press
  • Oaksford, M., Chater, N. Rationality in an uncertain world: Essays on the cognitive science of human reasoning 1998b Hove England: Psychology Press
  • Oaksford, M., Chater, N. Optimal data selection: Revision, review, and reevaluation. Psychonomic Bulletin and Review. 2003 10 289318
  • Over, D. E., Green, D. W. Contingency, causation, and adaptive inference. Psychological Review. 2001 108 682684
  • Payne, J. W., Bettman, J. R., Johnson, E. J. Adaptive decision maker 1993 Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
  • Pearce, J. M. A model for stimulus generalization in Pavlovian conditioning. Psychological Review. 1987 94 6173
  • Pearl, J. Causality: Models, reasoning, and inference 2000 Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press
  • Perales, J. C., Shanks, D. R. Normative and descriptive accounts of the influence of power and contingency on causal judgement. The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 2003 56A 9771007
  • Pitt, M. A., Myung, I. J. When a good fit can be bad. Trends in Cognitive Sciences. 2002 6 421425
  • Pylyshyn, Z. W. The robot's dilemma: The frame problem in artificial intelligence 1987 Norwoo, NJ: Ablex
  • Reichenbach, H. The direction of time 1956 Berkeley: University of California Press
  • Rescorla, R. A. Probability of shock in the presence and absence of CS in fear conditioning. Journal of Comparative and Physiological Psychology. 1968 66 15
  • Rescorla, R. A., Wagner, A. R. A theory of Pavlovian conditioning: Variations in the effectiveness of reinforcement and nonreinforcement In Black, A. H., Prokasy, W. F. (Eds.), Classical conditioning II: Current research and theory 1972 New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts 6499
  • Rosenthal, R. Meta-analytic procedures for social research, 1991 Rev. ed. Thousand Oak, CA: Sage
  • Schustack, M. W., Sternberg, R. J. Evaluation of evidence in causal inference. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. 1981 110 101120
  • Shaklee, H., Hall, L. Methods of assessing strategies for judging covariation between events. Journal of Educational Psychology. 1983 75 583594
  • Shaklee, H., Mims, M. Sources of error in judging event covariations: Effects of memory demands. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition. 1982 8 208224
  • Shaklee, H., Tucker, D. A rule analysis of judgments of covariation between events. Memory & Cognition. 1980 8 459467
  • Shanks, D. R. Continuous monitoring of human contingency judgment across trials. Memory & Cognition. 1985 13 158167
  • Shanks, D. R. Acquisition functions in contingency judgment. Learning and Motivation. 1987 18 147166
  • Shanks, D. R., Dickinson, A. Associative accounts of causality judgment. The Psychology of Learning and Motivation. 1987 21 229261
  • Shanks, D. R., Lopez, F. J., Darby, R. J., Dickinson, A. Distinguishing associative and probabilistic contrast theories of human contingency judgment In Shanks, D. R., Holyoak, K. J., Medin, D. L. (Eds.), The psychology of learning and motivation: Vol. 34. Causal learning 1996 London: Academic 265311
  • Siegel, S., Castellan, N. J. Jr. Nonparametric statistics for the behavioral sciences 1988 New York: McGraw-Hill
  • Sloman, S. A. The empirical case for two systems of reasoning. Psychological Bulletin. 1996 119 322
  • Sloman, S. A., Lagnado, D. A. Do we “do”?. Cognitive Science 2005 29 539
  • Smedslund, J. The concept of correlation in adults. The Scandinavian Journal of Psychology. 1963 4 165173
  • Sosa, E., Tooley, M. Causation 1993 Oxford England: Oxford University Press
  • Sperber, D., Premack, D., Premack, A. J. Causal cognition: A multidisciplinary debate 1995 Oxford England: Oxford University Press
  • Stanovich, K. E. Who is rational? Studies of individual dierences in reasoning 1999 Mahwa, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc
  • Steyvers, M., Tenenbaum, J. B., Wagenmakers, E.-J., Blumd, B. Inferring causal networks from observations and interventions. Cognitive Science. 2003 27 453489
  • Suppes, P. A probabilistic theory of causality 1970 Amsterdam: North-Holland
  • Swets, J. A. Indices of discrimination or diagnostic accuracy: Their ROCs and implied models. Psychological Bulletin. 1986 99 100117
  • Tanner, W. P. Jr., Swets, J. A. A decision-making theory of visual detection. Psychological Review. 1954 61 401409
  • Tenenbaum, J. B., Griffths, T. L. Structure learning in human causal induction In Keen, T. K., Dietterich, T. G., Tresp, V. (Eds.), Advances in neural information processing systems Vol. 13 2001 Cambridg, MA: MIT Press 5965.
  • Toda, M. Future time perspective and human cognition: An evolutional view. International Journal of Psychology. 1983 18 351365
  • Vallée-Tourangeau, F., Murphy, R. A., Drew, S., Baker, A. G. Judging the importance of constant and variable candidate causes: A test of the power PC theory. The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 1998 51A 6584
  • Venables, W. N., Ripley, B. D. Modern applied statistics with S-PLUS, 1999 3rd ed. New York: Springer-Verlag
  • Ward, W. C., Jenkins, H. M. The display of information and the judgment of contingency. Canadian Journal of Psychology. 1965 19 231241
  • Wasserman, E. A. Detecting response–outcome relations: Toward an understanding of the causal texture of the environment In Bower, G. H. (Ed.), The psychology of learning and motivation: Advances in research and theory 1990 Vol. 26 New York: Academic 2782
  • Wasserman, E. A., Chatlosh, D. L., Neunaber, D. J. Perception of causal relations in humans: Factors affecting judgments of response–outcome contingencies under free-operant procedures. Learning and Motivation. 1983 14 406432
  • Wasserman, E. A., Dorner, W. W., Kao, S.-F. Contributions of specific cell information to judgments of interevent contingency. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition. 1990 16 509521
  • Wasserman, E. A., Elek, S. M., Chatlosh, D. L., Baker, A. G. Rating causal relations: Role of probability in judgments of response–outcome contingency. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition. 1993 19 174188
  • Wasserman, E. A., Kao, S.-F., Van Hamme, L. J., Katagiri, M., Young, M. E. Causation and association In Shanks, D. R., Holyoak, K. J., Medin, D. L. (Eds.), The psychology of learning and motivation: Vol. 34. Causal learning 1996 London: Academic 207264
  • Wasserman, E. A., Shaklee, H. Judging response–outcome relations: The role of response–outcome contingency, outcome probabiolity, and method of information presentation. Memory & Cognition. 1984 12 270286
  • White, P. A. Causal judgment from contingency information: The interpretation of factors common to all instances. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition. 2000 26 10831102
  • White, P. A. Making causal judgments from the proportion of confirming instances: The pCI rule. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 2003 29 710727
  • Woodcock, F. The evaluation of yes/no forecasts for scientific and administrative purposes. Monthly Weather Review. 1976 104 12091214
  • Woodworth, R. S. Experimental psychology 1938 New York: Holt
  • Yule, G. U. On the association of attributes in statistics: With illustrations from the material of the childhood society. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London: Series A. 1900 194 257319
  • Yule, G. U. On the methods of measuring association between two attributes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 1912 75 579642