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Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management Framework Using Hierarchical Holographic Modeling

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Abstract

This paper contributes a methodological framework to identify, prioritize, assess, and manage risk scenarios of a large-scale system. Qualitative screening of scenarios and classes of scenarios is appropriate initially, while quantitative assessments may be applied once the set of all scenarios (hundreds) has been prioritized in several phases. The eight-phase methodology is described in detail and is applied to operations other than war. The eight phases are as follows: Phase I, Scenario Identification—A hierarchical holographic model (HHM) is developed to describe the system's ``as planned'' or ``success'' scenario. Phase II, Scenario Filtering—The risk scenarios identified in Phase I are filtered according to the responsibilities and interests of the current system user. Phase III, Bi-Criteria Filtering and Ranking. Phase IV, Multi-Criteria Evaluation. Phase V, Quantitative Ranking—We continue to filter and rank scenarios based on quantitative and qualitative matrix scales of likelihood and consequence; and ordinal response to system resiliency, robustness, redundancy. Phase VI, RiskManagement is performed, involving identification of management options for dealing with the filtered scenarios, and estimating the cost, performance benefits, and risk reduction of each. Phase VII, Safeguarding Against Missing Critical Items—We examine the performance of the options selected in Phase VI against the scenarios previously filtered out during Phases II to V. Phase VIII, OperationalFeedback—We use the experience and information gained during application to refine the scenario filtering and decision processes in earlier phases. These eight phases reflect a philosophical approach rather than a mechanical methodology. In this philosophy, the filtering and ranking of discrete scenarios is viewed as a precursor to, rather than a substitute for, consideration of the totality of all risk scenarios.

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