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Appendix S1. Detailed methods.

Appendix S2. R code.

Figures S1 and S2. Maps of sample locations.

Figures S3 and S4. Maps of winter mean sea surface temperature and wave fetch.

Figures S5–S8. Empirical and predicted marginal relationships between transition probabilities and explanatory variables for Phorcus lineatus.

Figures S9–S12. Empirical and predicted marginal relationships between transition probabilities and explanatory variables for Gibbula umbilicalis.

Figures S13 and S14. Contour plots of the stationary probabilities as functions of explanatory variables.

Figures S15 and S16. Contour plots of normalized entropy as functions of explanatory variables.

Figure S17. Contour plots of posterior standard deviations of natural log persistence time for (a) Phorcus lineatus and (b) Gibbula umbilicalis as a function of mean winter sea surface temperature (inline imageC) and wave fetch (km).

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