Rain rules for limited overs cricket and probabilities of victory


  • Ian, Preston,

  • Jonathan Thomas

Address for correspondence: Ian Preston, Department of Economics, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK.
E-mail: i.preston@ucl.ac.uk


Summary. The paper discusses the properties of a rule for adjusting scores in limited overs cricket matches to preserve probabilities of victory across interruptions by rain. Such a rule is argued to be attractive on grounds of fairness, intelligibility and tactical neutrality. A comparison with other rules also offers a useful way of assessing the way in which the application of such rules will affect the fortunes of teams in rain-affected games. Simulations based on an estimated parameterization of hazards of dismissal and on numerical dynamic programming methods are used to compare a probability preserving rule with the now widely used Duckworth–Lewis method.