Measurement of Political Effects in the United States Economy: A Study of the 1992 Presidential Election


M. C. Herron Department of Political Science, Northwestern University. Address: Scott Hall, 601 University Place, Evanston, IL


This paper analyzes the link between the 1992 United States presidential election outcome and a collection of American economic sectors. Based on data from the 1992 Iowa Political Stock Market and campaign-period stock portfolio behavior, we identify 15 economic sectors, of 74 examined, whose profits varied in a statistically significant manner with movements in Iowa Market-based measures of presidential candidate standing. And, in light of 1992 campaign rhetoric pertaining to defense policy and environmental issues, we build on this finding with an analysis of selected defense firms and firms known to be toxic waste emitters.