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Simulating the Impact of Long-Term Care Policy on Family Eldercare Hours


  • [Correction statement added after first online publication 24 January 2013: Under the Results section (p.11), two numbers were inaccurate. ‘56 percent are projected to have five or more ADL limitations’ should have read ‘40 percent…,’ and ‘from 29 hours per week to 52 hours per week’ should have read ‘from 29 hours per week to 41 hours…’ These have been corrected.]



To understand the effect of current and future long-term care (LTC) policies on family eldercare hours for older adults (60 years of age and older) in Singapore.

Data Sources

The Social Isolation Health and Lifestyles Survey, the Survey on Informal Caregiving, and the Singapore Government's Ministry of Health and Department of Statistics.

Study Design

An LTC Model was created using system dynamics methodology and parameterized using available reports and data as well as informal consultation with LTC experts.

Principal Findings

In the absence of policy change, among the elderly living at home with limitations in their activities of daily living (ADLs), the proportion of those with greater ADL limitations will increase. In addition, by 2030, average family eldercare hours per week are projected to increase by 41 percent from 29 to 41 hours. All policy levers considered would moderate or significantly reduce family eldercare hours.


System dynamics modeling was useful in providing policy makers with an overview of the levers available to them and in demonstrating the interdependence of policies and system components.

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