• climate change;
  • emergence time;
  • number of generation;
  • RCP 8.5 scenario


According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global mean surface temperature increased by 0.74°C between 1906 and 2005, and is expected to continue rising. In Korea, the temperature increased rapidly by 1.8°C between 1912 and 2010. The effect of global warming are expected to cause phenological changes in exothermic organisms such as insect pests which are highly dependent on temperature. In present study, we estimated the emergence time of three lepidopteran pests (Carposina sasakii, Grapholita molesta, and Phyllonorycter ringoniella) in apple orchards during 2000, 2020s, 2050s, and 2090s, by means of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. In comparison with 2000, the emergence of C. sasakii is predicted to occur 5.5 ± 0.49 days earlier in 2020s, 14.9 ± 0.40 days earlier in 2050s, and 40.0 ± 0.75 days earlier in 2090s; the emergence of G. molesta is predicted to occur 8.2 ± 0.36 days earlier in 2020s, 16.9 ± 0.40 days earlier in 2050s, and 49.7 ± 0.61 days earlier in 2090s; and the emergence of P. ringoniella is predicted to occur 9.0 ± 0.34 days earlier in 2020s, 20.5 ± 0.58 days earlier in 2050s, and 52.5 ± 0.63 days earlier in 2090s. The number of generations a year is expected to increase by 0.5–2.8 generations in 2050s, 1.3–6.7 in 2090s. Our predictions provide basic data for the development of insect pest management strategies in spring under conditions of global warming.