men12184-sup-0001-FigS1.pdfapplication/PDF146KFig. S1 Schematic describing iDDC (integrative distributional, demographic, and coalescent modelling). Using information on the local habitat suitabilities derived from ENMs generated for different time points in the past (a), a time forward demographic simulation using the program Splatche 2 (Ray et al. 2010) is conducted, where local carrying capacities and migration probabilities of individuals varies across the landscape (b). Based on this ENM-informed demographic history, coalescent simulations are used to generate patterns of genetic variation (c). By simulating over a broad range of parameter sets, as specified by priors derived from alternative models, expectations for patterns genetic data, as characterized using summary statistics (e.g. FST and Tajima's D), can be generated under an ABC approach and compared with summary statistics obtained from empirical data (d) (for details see Beaumont 2002; Csillery et al. 2010). Note that tools to perform these analyses have already been developed and are freely available (e.g. Ray et al. 2010; Wegmann et al. 2010).

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