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Table S1. Estimated regression coefficients for the propensity score model.

Table S2. Estimated transitions and detection probabilities from the multi-state capture-recapture models. (propensity scores estimated with shrinkage).

Table S3. Estimated transitions and detection probabilities from the multi-state capture-recapture models. (propensity scores estimated without shrinkage).

Fig S1. Violations of the Stable Unit-Treatment Value Assumption (SUTVA).

Fig S2. Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of a standard logistic distribution and a Student-t distribution with 7 degrees of freedom and scale set to 1.5484.

Fig S3. Graphical display of covariate balance after matching on propensity scores (estimated without shrinkage).

Fig S4. Graphical representation of the multi-state capture recapture model used to estimate counterfactual outcomes for equipped birds.

Fig S5. Graphical representation of the Student t priors of location 0, scale 10 and 7 df on a logit scale used for detection probabilities π.

Fig S6. Comparison between predicted and observed breeding performance in 2012 for birds equipped with tags in 2011.

Data S1. Data and R codes to reproduce the analysis.

mee312075-sup-0002-Appendix.pdfapplication/PDF44KAppendix S1. Simpson's and Lord's Paradoxes.

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