aab12107-sup-0001-FigrueS1.docxWord 2007 document53K

Fig. S1. Two Argentinian models were tested using observed Chinese weather data and fusarium ear blight data. These model equations are:

  • display math(1)
  • display math(2)

In these two models (Moschini et al., 2001), fusarium ear blight incidence (% ears affected) is PI. NP2 is number of 2-day periods with precipitation (≥0.2 mm) and relative humidity >81% on the first day and relative humidity ≥ 78% on the second day; NP12 is total number of NP2 periods plus total number of days in which both precipitation ≥ 0.2 mm and mean relative humidity >83%. The two variables DD926 and DD1026 are calculated as:

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where MaxT denotes the daily maximum temperature (summed for those days when MaxT was greater than 26°C), MinT is the daily minimum temperature (summed for those days when MinT was less than 9°C (10°C)). When observed Chinese weather data were substituted into the two Argentinian models, most of the predicted values of incidence were much greater than the observed values for both model [1] (panel (a)) and model [2] (panel (b)).

aab12107-sup-0002-FigrueS2.docxWord 2007 document250KFig. S2. Validation of weather data generated by PRECIS. Weather data for years 2001-2008 (including (a) daily mean temperature (°C), (b) daily maximum temperature (°C) and (c) number of days with ≥0.1mm rainfall in April and May for each year) generated by the PRECIS model were compared with the observed weather data for the 10 locations in Anhui and Hubei provinces in central China that were used in model construction. The root mean squared values of deviation from the 1:1 lines for the variables were: 3.38°C (a), 4.53°C (b) and 4.42 days (c).
aab12107-sup-0003-FigrueS3.docxWord 2007 document91KFig. S3. Comparison of weather variables between baseline climate data and climate scenario A1B data. Weather variables were compared between 30 years of baseline climate data (model output for 1960–1990 ‘□’) and 30 years of projected data for climate change scenario A1B (model output 2020–2050 ‘▪’) for the 15 locations in Anhui and Hubei provinces. For each location and weather variable, the 30 years of data are represented by a box plot. For all plots: 1. The bold line within the box indicates the median value (50th percentile); 2. The lower and upper edges of the box represent the 1st and 3rd quartiles respectively (25th and 75th percentiles); 3. The whiskers extend above the third quartile or below the first quartile to the range of the data or to 1.5 × (inter-quartile range) if there are values which lie outside these limits (these are outliers, shown as circles (image) beyond the whisker ends).  Weather variables were chosen to represent those in the fusarium ear blight model with anthesis date assumed to be 1 April. Mean values of maximum temperature for the period from 3 to 2 weeks before anthesis date (a) were 1-2°C greater for the 2020–2050 period than the baseline period for all locations. The number of days of rainfall in the 30 days after anthesis date (b) did not show a clear change for each location from the baseline period to the 2020–2050 period. The total rainfall in April (c) was greater in the 2020–2050 period than in the baseline period (1960–1990) for most locations. For details of locations, see supplementary Table 1.
aab12107-sup-0004-TableS1.docxWord 2007 document37KTable S1. Location information and data available for 15 locations in Anhui and Hubei provinces in central China. These locations have wheat fusarium ear blight data (1–6 cultivars depending on location and year) from commercial winter wheat crops. These locations were selected for generation of weather data for 2001–2008 and projected climate data for the climate change scenario A1B for the period 2020–2050. Latitude, longitude and altitude data for each location were obtained from The observed wheat anthesis dates for these cultivars were available for each location and observed weather data (within 5, 20 or 30 km) were available for 10 of the 15 locations.
aab12107-sup-0005-TableS2.docxWord 2007 document35KTable S2. Projected fusarium ear blight incidence (percentage of ears affected). Projected mean fusarium ear blight incidence for period 2021–2050 for the 15 locations in Anhui and Hubei provinces was compared with the observed mean fusarium ear blight incidence between 3 and 10 years per location from 2001 to 2010. The projected (2021–2050) mean fusarium ear blight incidence was greater than the observed (2001–2010) incidence.

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