Climate change, weather shocks, and violent conflict: a critical look at the evidence

Authors


  • Selected article prepared for presentation at the International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE) Triennial Conference, Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, 18–24 August, 2012.

Abstract

We use cross-country data to explore whether temperature and rainfall shocks trigger violent conflict, or not. We include a wide range of country and time samples, and explore whether the impact of weather shocks is conditional on income or political regimes. Our overall conclusion is sobering. Notwithstanding the attention this topic has attracted from the media and policy makers, we find little robust evidence linking weather shocks to the onset of conflict.

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