Biology as Population Dynamics: Heuristics for Transmission Risk
Article first published online: 29 NOV 2012
© 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S
American Journal of Reproductive Immunology
Special Issue: Sexual Violence and HIV Transmission
Volume 69, Issue Supplement s1, pages 88–94, February 2013
How to Cite
Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk. Am J Reprod Immunol 2012, , .
- Issue published online: 6 FEB 2013
- Article first published online: 29 NOV 2012
- Manuscript Accepted: 16 OCT 2012
- Manuscript Received: 31 JUL 2012
- HIV transmission;
Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence.