Disclaimer: Supplementary materials have been peer-reviewed but not copyedited.


I. Voters’ Intended Behavior: Additional Studies

A. Histograms for respondents’ intended weights

B. Eliciting intended weights from the mainexperimental subjects

C. Eliminating the easy 4 × 25% answer

D. Question with predefined weights — Internetsample

E. Question with predefined weights — student sample

F. Question without referring to weights

G. How far do you look back with George W. Bush?

II. Memory-based Explanations for End Bias

A. Replication of Table 3's historical-data study witha separate sample of 64 participants

B. Experiments changing the order of the bars and theorientation of the plots

C. Replication of Table 3: Additional hypotheticalincome growth studies

III. How Informative Is the Election-Year Economy?

A. Additional information for simple survey question

B. Replication of Study C1

C. Predicting future growth when seeing the changefor a single year

D. Importance of each year when predicting the futureeconomy (YouGov/Polimetrics)

E. Hypothetically paying for growth information topredict the future

F. Example of growth plot without political context(Study C2)

G. Trends and Peaks

1. Do trends matter? Pooled analysis of randomlydrawn experiments on yearly income growth

2. Do peaks matter? Pooled analysis ofrandomly drawn experiments on yearly growth

H. Is the election-year economy actuallymore informative about future growth?

I. Is election-year growth more informative aboutearlier growth?

IV. Aligning Voters’ Actions with Their Intentions

A. Testing whether voters act in accordance with theirstated intentions

B. Addressing concerns about demand with thecumulative growth experiments

C. Addressing concerns about demand withcumulative experiments (minimal instructions)

D. Addressing concerns about demand with the levelexperiment

E. Level experiment using text instead of plots

F. Income-in-levels experiment where participantssaw only one term (SSI sample)

G. Simple income-in-levels experiment

H. Average-in-plot experiment

I. Twenty-year study

V. Additional Analysis and Robustness Checks

A. Media coverage of the economy: Content analysis

B. Replication with Indian subjects

C. Accounting for potential repeat takers onMechanical Turk

1. Excluding repeat IP addresses across studies

2. Excluding repeat IP addresses within study

VI. Experimental Instructions and Related Information

A. Recruitment language for Mechanical Turk studies

B. Description of task for Mechanical Turk studies

C. Mechanical Turk validation

1. Published validation studies

2. Citations for MTurk validation studies andselected MTurk publications

3. Mechanical Turk demographics

4. Attention to task and screener questions

VII. Individual-level regressions referenced in footnotes 18 and 22

VIII. When can people add up the bars in plots?

Please note: Wiley Blackwell is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.