• 1
    Nightingale F. Notes on Hospitals, 1st edn. London: Longman, Green, Longman, Roberts and Green, 1859.
  • 2
    Empana JP, Ducimetière P, Arveiler D, et al. Are the Framingham and PROCAM coronary heart disease risk functions applicable to different European populations? The PRIME study. European Heart Journal 2004; 24: 190311.
  • 3
    Brindle P, Emberson J, Lampe F, et al. Predictive accuracy of the Framingham coronary risk score in british men: prospective cohort study. British Medical Journal 2003; 327: 126773.
  • 4
    Conroy RM, Pyörälä K, Fitzgerald AP, et al. Estimation of ten-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Europe: the SCORE project. European Heart Journal 2003; 24: 9871003.
  • 5
    Lampe FC, Whincup PH, Wannamethee SG, Shaper AG, Walker M, Ebrahim S. The natural history of prevalent ischaemic heart disease in middle-aged men. European Heart Journal 2001; 21: 105262.
  • 6
    Alter DA, Chong A, Austin PC, et al. Socioeconomic status and mortality after acute myocardial infarction. Annals of Internal Medicine 2006; 144: 8293.
  • 7
    Clayton TC, Lubsen J, Pocock SJ, et al. Risk score for predicting death, myocardial infarction, and stroke in patients with stable angina, based on a large randomised trial cohort of patients. British Medical Journal 2005; 331: 86974.
  • 8
    Hemingway H, McCallum A, Shipley M, Manderbacka K, Martikainen P, Keskimäki I. Incidence and prognostic implications of stable angina pectoris among women and men. Journal of the American Medical Association 2006; 295: 140411.
  • 9
    Clark TG, Murphy MFG, Rothwell PM. Long term risks of stroke, myocardial infarction, and vascular death in “low risk” patients with a non-recent transient ischaemic attack. Journal of Neurology Neurosurgery and Psychiatry 2003; 74: 57780.
  • 10
    Norman PE, Eikelboorn JW, Hankey GJ. Peripheral arterial disease: prognostic significance and prevention of atherothrombotic complications. Medical Journal of Australia 2004; 181: 1504.
  • 11
    Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C, Vinigradova Y, Robson J, May M, Brindle P. Derivation and validation of QRISK, a new cardiovascular disease risk score for the United Kingdom: prospective open cohort study. British Medical Journal 2007; 335: 13648.
  • 12
    Mora S, Redberg RF, Sharrett R, Blumenthal RS. Enhanced risk assessment in asymptomatic individuals with exercise testing and Framingham risk scores. Circulation 2005; 112: 156672.
  • 13
    Office for National Statistics. Statistical bulletin: Interim life tables, England and Wales, 2009–11. (accessed 30/09/2013).
  • 14
    National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death: Knowing the Risk. A review of the peri-operative care of surgical patients. 2011 (accessed 30/09/2013).
  • 15
    Rivett G. The development of the London hospital system, 1823–1982. (accessed 30/09/2013).
  • 16
    Iezzoni LI. 100 apples divided by 15 red herrings: a cautionary tale from the mid-19th century on comparing hospital mortality rates. Annals of Internal Medicine 1996; 124: 107985.
  • 17
    Iezzoni LI, Ash AS, Shwartz M, et al. Judging hospitals by severity-adjusted mortality rates: the influence of the severity-adjustment method. American Journal of Public Health 1996; 86: 137987.
  • 18
    Jencks SF, Williams DK, Kay TL. Assessing hospital-associated deaths from discharge data. Journal of the American Medical Association 1988; 260: 22406.
  • 19
    Iezzoni LI, Heeren T, Foley SM, et al. Chronic conditions and risk of in-hospital death. Health Services Research 1994; 29: 43560.
  • 20
    Drye E, Normand S-LT, Wang Y, et al. Comparison of hospital risk-standardized mortality rates using in-hospital and 30-day models: implications for hospital profiling. Annals of Internal Medicine 2012; 156: 1926.
  • 21
    Shine D. Risk-adjusted mortality: problems and possibilities. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine 2012; 2012: 829465.
  • 22
    Shojania KG, Forster AJ. Hospital mortality: when failure is not a good measure of success. Canadian Medical Association Journal 2008; 179: 1537.
  • 23
    Bueno H, Ross JS, Wang Y, et al. Trends in length of stay and short-term outcomes among Medicare patients hospitalized for heart failure, 1993–2006. Journal of the American Medical Association 2010; 303: 21417.
  • 24
    Pearse RM, Moreno RP, Bauer P, et al. Mortality after surgery in Europe: a 7 day cohort study. Lancet 2012; 380: 105965.
  • 25
    Khuri SF, Henderson WG, DePalma RG, et al. Determinants of long-term survival after major surgery and the adverse effect of postoperative complications. Annals of Surgery 2005; 242: 32643.
  • 26
    Fleischman RJ, Adams AL, Hedges JR, et al. The optimum follow-up period for assessing mortality outcomes in injured older adults. Journal of the American Geriatric Society 2010; 58: 18439.
  • 27
    Nitsch D, Grams M, Sang Y, et al. Associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria with mortality and renal failure by sex: a meta-analysis. British Medical Journal 2013; 346: f324.
  • 28
    Shlipak MG, Matsushita K, Ärnlöv J, et al. Cystatin C versus creatinine in determining risk based on kidney function. New England Journal of Medicine 2013; 369: 93243.
  • 29
    Matsushita K, van der Velde M, Astor BC, et al. Association of estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in general population cohorts: a collaborative meta-analysis. Lancet 2010; 375: 207381.
  • 30
    Myers J, Prakash M, Froelicher V. Exercise capacity and mortality among men referred for exercise testing. New England Journal of Medicine 2002; 346: 793801.
  • 31
    Gulati M, Black HR, Shaw LJ, et al. The prognostic value of a nomogram for exercise capacity in women. New England Journal of Medicine 2005; 353: 46875.
  • 32
    Kodama S, Saito K, Tanaka S. Cardiorespiratory fitness as a quantitative predictor of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events in healthy men and women: a meta-analysis. Journal of the American Medical Association 2009; 301: 202435.
  • 33
    Byrne NM, Hills AP, Hunter GR, et al. Metabolic equivalent: one size does not fit all. Journal of Applied Physiology 2005; 99: 11129.
  • 34
    Maeder M, Wolber T, Atefy R, et al. Impact of the exercise mode on exercise capacity: bicycle testing revisited. Chest 2005; 128: 280411.
  • 35
    Tsurugaya H, Adachi H, Kurabayashi M, Ohshima S, Taniguchi K. Prognostic impact of ventilatory efficiency in heart disease patients with preserved exercise tolerance. Circulation 2006; 70: 13326.
  • 36
    Koike A, Itoh H, Kato M, et al. Prognostic power of ventilatory responses during submaximal exercise in patients with chronic heart disease. Chest 2001; 121: 15818.
  • 37
    Robbins M, Francis G, Pashkow FJ, et al. Ventilatory and heart rate responses to exercise: better predictors of heart failure mortality than peak oxygen consumption. Chest 1999; 100: 24117.
  • 38
    Gitt AK, Wasserman K, Kilkowski C, et al. Exercise anaerobic threshold and ventilatory efficiency identify heart failure patients for high risk of early death. Circulation 2002; 106: 307984.
  • 39
    Davies LC, Wensel R, Georgiadou P, et al. Enhanced prognostic value from cardiopulmonary exercise testing in chronic heart failure by non-linear analysis: oxygen uptake efficiency slope. European Heart Journal 2006; 27: 68490.
  • 40
    Corrà U, Mezzani A, Bosimini E, Giannuzzi P. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing and prognosis in chronic heart failure: a prognosticating algorithm for the individual patient. Chest 2004; 126: 94250.
  • 41
    Guazzi M, Myers J, Arena R. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing in the clinical and prognostic assessment of diastolic heart failure. Journal of the American College of Cardiology 2005; 46: 188390.
  • 42
    Prospective Studies Collaboration. Body-mass index and cause-specific mortality in 900 000 adults: collaborative analyses of 57 prospective studies. Lancet 2009; 373: 108396.
  • 43
    Flegal KM, Kit BK, Orphana H, Graubard BI. Association of all-cause mortality with overweight and obesity using standard body mass index categories: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of the American Medical Association 2013; 309: 7182.
  • 44
    Zheng H, Tumin D, Qian Z. Obesity and mortality risk: new findings from body mass index trajectories. American Journal of Epidemiology 2013 September 7; doi: 10.1093/aje/kwt179.
  • 45
    Nakazawa A, Nakamura K, Kitamura K, Yoshizawa Y. Association between body mass index and mortality among institutionalized elderly adults in Japan. Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine 2013 July 27; doi: 10.1007/2Fs12199-013-0351-9.
  • 46
    Lavie CJ, Cahalin LP, Chase P, et al. Impact of cardiorespiratory fitness on the obesity paradox in patients with heart failure. Mayo Clinic Proceedings 2013; 88: 2518.
  • 47
    Powell JT, Brown LC, Forbes JF, et al. Final 12-year follow-up of surgery versus surveillance in the UK small aneurysms trial. British Journal of Surgery 2007; 94: 7028.
  • 48
    The United Kingdom EVAR Trial Investigators. Endovascular versus open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm. New England Journal of Medicine 2010; 362: 186371.
  • 49
    Noordzij PG, Poldermans D, Schouten O, et al. Postoperative mortality in The Netherlands. Anesthesiology 2010; 112: 110515.
  • 50
    Swart M, Carlisle JB. Case-controlled study of critical care or surgical ward care after elective open colorectal surgery. British Journal of Surgery 2012; 99: 2959.
  • 51
    Carlisle J, Swart M, Dawe EJ, Chadwick M. Factors associated with survival after resection of colorectal adenocarcinoma in 314 patients. British Journal of Anaesthesia 2012; 108: 4305.