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Matching on-the-fly: Sequential allocation with higher power and efficiency



We propose a dynamic allocation procedure that increases power and efficiency when measuring an average treatment effect in fixed sample randomized trials with sequential allocation. Subjects arrive iteratively and are either randomized or paired via a matching criterion to a previously randomized subject and administered the alternate treatment. We develop estimators for the average treatment effect that combine information from both the matched pairs and unmatched subjects as well as an exact test. Simulations illustrate the method's higher efficiency and power over several competing allocation procedures in both simulations and in data from a clinical trial.