Biodiversity Research
You have free access to this content
Red noise increases extinction risk during rapid climate change
Article first published online: 17 JAN 2013
DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12038
© 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Additional Information
How to Cite
Mustin, K., Dytham, C., Benton, T. G., Travis, J. M. J. (2013), Red noise increases extinction risk during rapid climate change. Diversity and Distributions, 19: 815–824. doi: 10.1111/ddi.12038
Publication History
- Issue published online: 13 JUN 2013
- Article first published online: 17 JAN 2013
References
- , , , , , & (2009) Dynamics of range margins for metapopulations under climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 276, 1415–1420.
- , & (2006) Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe. Journal of Biogeography, 33, 1712–1728.
- (2006) Revealing the ghost in the machine: using spectral analysis to understand the influence of noise on population dynamics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 103, 18387–18388.
- & (2005) Population dynamics in a noisy world: lessons from a mite experimental system. Advances in Ecological Research, 37, 143–181.
- , & (1995) Does environmental stochasticity matter? Analysis of red deer life-histories on Rum. Evolutionary Ecology, 9, 559–574.
- , , & (2001) Maternal effects and the stability of population dynamics in noisy environments. Journal of Animal Ecology, 70, 590–599.
- , , & (2002) Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope of species in Britain and Ireland. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 11, 453–462.Direct Link:
- , , & (2007) Which species will successfully track climate change? The influence of intraspecific competition and density dependent dispersal on range shifting dynamics. Oikos, 116, 1531–1539.
- & (2001) Noisy clockwork: time series analysis of population fluctuations in animals. Science, 293, 638–643.
- , , & (2007) Modelling species' range shifts in a changing climate: the impacts of biotic interactions, dispersal distance and the rate of climate change. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 245, 59–65.
- & (1977) Turnover rates in insular biogeography: effect of immigration on extinction. Ecology, 58, 445–449.
- (1996) DISPERSE: a cellular automaton for predicting the distribution of species in a changed climate. Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters, 5, 217–226.
- (2007) Interacting effects of climate change, landscape conversion, and harvest on carnivore populations at the range margin: marten and lynx in the Northern Appalachians. Conservation Biology, 21, 1092–1104.
- & (2012) A decade of weather extremes. Nature Climate Change, 2, 491–496.
- & (2012) Changes in the large-scale distribution of plants: extinction, colonisation and the effects of climate. Journal of Ecology, 100, 519–529.
- , & (2001) Stochastic population dynamics and time to extinction of a declining population of barn swallows. Journal of Animal Ecology, 70, 789–797.
- (1992) Relative importance of spatial and temporal scales in a patchy environment. Theoretical Population Biology, 41, 300–314.
- & (1998) How does temporal variability affect predictions of weed population numbers? Journal of Applied Ecology, 35, 340–344.
- & (2011) An empirical link between the spectral colour of climate and the spectral colour of field populations in the context of climate change. Journal of Animal Ecology, 80, 1042–1048.
- & (2003) The amplification of environmental noise in population Models: causes and consequences. American Naturalist, 161, 225–239.
- & (2005a) The impact of environmental fluctuations on structured discrete time population models: resonance, synchrony and threshold behaviour. Theoretical Population Biology, 68, 217–235.
- & (2005b) The frequency spectrum of structured discrete time population models: its properties and their ecological implications. Oikos, 110, 369–389.
- (1996) Ecology, evolution and noise. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 11, 33–37.
- & (2005) Conserving biodiversity under climate change: the rear edge matters. Ecology Letters, 8, 461–467.
- , & . (2012) Perception of climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 109, 14726–14727.
- (1999) Habitat connectivity, habitat continuity, and metapopulations in dynamic landscapes. Oikos, 87, 209–219.
- (1998) Noise colour, synchrony and extinctions in spatially structured populations. Oikos, 83, 368–375.
- & (2003) Influence of coloured noise on the extinction risk in structured population models. Biological Conservation, 110, 315–325.
- , & (2000) Extinction risk under coloured environmental noise. Ecography, 23, 177–184.
- , , & (2007) Evaluating population persistence of Delmarva fox squirrels and potential impacts of climate change. Biological Conservation, 137, 70–77.
- , & (1999) Climate and habitat availability determine 20th Century changes in a butterfly's range margin. Proceedings of the Royal SocietyB, 266, 1197–1206.
- , , , , , & (2008) Assisted colonization and rapid climate change. Science, 321, 345–346.
- IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, IPCC, New York.
- , , , & (2007) Climate envelope, life history traits and the resilience of birds facing global change. Global Change Biology, 13, 1672–1684.
- & (1997) Extinction risk in a temporally correlated fluctuating environment. Theoretical Population Biology, 52, 91–100.
- , & (2002) Metapopulation persistence in dynamic landscapes: the role of dispersal distance. Oikos, 98, 263–270.
- , , , , , , , & (2008) Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models. Biology Letters, 4, 560–563.
- , , & (2000) Extinction thresholds and metapopulation persistence in dynamic landscapes. American Naturalist, 156, 478–494.
- & (1973) The stability of predator-prey systems. Ecology, 54, 384–391.
- , , & (2009) The dynamics of climate-induced range shifting; perspectives from simulation modelling. Oikos, 118, 131–137.
- & (2004) Climate change meets habitat fragmentation: linking landscape and biogeographical scale levels in research and conservation. Biological Conservation, 117, 285–297.
- & (1998) Population extinctions in correlated environments. Oikos, 83, 359–367.
- & (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37–42.
- , & (1997) Effects on population persistence: the interaction between environmental noise colour, intraspecific competition and space. Proceedings of the Royal SocietyB, 264, 1841–1847.
- & (2009) The influence of context-dependent maternal effects on population dynamics: an experimental test. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 364, 1049–1058.
- , , , , , & (2011) Poor environmental tracking can make extinction risk insensitive to the colour of environmental noise. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 278, 3713–3722.
- , , , & (2006) Power spectra reveal the influence of stochasticity on nonlinear population dynamics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 103, 18860–18865.
- & (1999) Linear analysis solves two puzzles in population dynamics: the route to extinction and extinction in coloured environments. Ecology Letters, 2, 219–222.Direct Link:
- & (1996) Noise colour and the risk of population extinctions. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 263, 1751–1753.
- & (2008) Community extinction patterns in coloured environments. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 275, 1775–1783.
- , & (2007) Extinctions in competitive communities forced by coloured environmental variation. Oikos, 116, 439–448.
- , , & (2009) Ecological and evolutionary dynamics under coloured environmental variation. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 24, 555–563.
- , & (2006) Does red noise increase or decrease extinction risk? Single extreme events versus series of unfavorable conditions. American Naturalist, 167, 879–888.
- , , & (1997) Modelling persistence in dynamic landscapes: lessons from a metapopulation of the grasshopper Bryodema tuberculata. Journal of Animal Ecology, 66, 508–518.
- , & (1996) A bioclimatic model for the potential distributions of north European tree species under present and future climates. Journal of Biogeography, 23, 203–233.
- (2010) Climate, climate change and range boundaries. Diversity and Distributions, 16, 488–495.
- (2003) BIOMOD - optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change. Global Change Biology, 9, 1353–1362.
- , , & (2005) The importance of long-distance dispersal in biodiversity conservation. Diversity and Distributions, 11, 173–181.
- (2003) Climate change and habitat destruction: a deadly anthropogenic cocktail. Proceedings of the Royal SocietyB, 270, 467–473.
- , & . (2012) On a collision course: competition and dispersal differences create no-analogue communities and cause extinctions during climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 279, 2072–2080.
- & (2004) The colour of environmental noise. Ecology, 85, 1146–1152.
- , , , , , , , & (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature, 416, 389–395.
- , , , & (2005) Extinction risk, coloured noise and the scaling of variance. Theoretical Population Biology, 68, 29–40.
- , , , , , & (2009) Assisted colonization in a changing climate: a test-study using two UK butterflies. Conservation Letters, 2, 46–52.
- , , , , & (2005) Changes to the elevational limits and extent of species ranges associated with climate change. Ecology Letters, 8, 1138–1146.

1472-4642/asset/ddi_left.gif?v=1&s=b5c0734a11efd255b2215c418a42d0a633a003aa)
