1472-4642/asset/ddi_left.gif?v=1&s=b5c0734a11efd255b2215c418a42d0a633a003aa)
Biodiversity Research
You have full text access to this OnlineOpen article
Keeping up with the neighbours: using a genetic measurement of dispersal and species distribution modelling to assess the impact of climate change on an Australian arid zone gecko (Gehyra variegata)
Article first published online: 11 MAR 2013
DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12071
© 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Issue
Diversity and Distributions
Early View (Online Version of Record published before inclusion in an issue)
Additional Information
How to Cite
Duckett, P. E., Wilson, P. D., Stow, A. J. (2013), Keeping up with the neighbours: using a genetic measurement of dispersal and species distribution modelling to assess the impact of climate change on an Australian arid zone gecko (Gehyra variegata). Diversity and Distributions. doi: 10.1111/ddi.12071
Publication History
- Article first published online: 11 MAR 2013
Funded by
- Macquarie University and the Wildlife Preservation Society of Australia Limited
References
- & (2006) Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling. Journal of Biogeography, 33, 1677–1688.
- & (2008) A 100 million year old gecko with sophisticated adhesive toe pads, preserved in amber from Myanmar. Zootaxa, 1847, 62–68.
- Australian Government (2006) The 2001/02 land use of Australia version 3. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences Publication.
- Australian National Resources Atlas (2001) A summary of Australian soil properties at national and state levels.
- (1968) The ecology of the Australian gecko, Gehyra variegata, in northern New South Wales. Journal of Zoology, 154, 113–138.Direct Link:
- (1969) The population ecology of the gekkonid lizard (Gehyra variegata (Dumeril & Bibron)) in exploited forests in northern New South Wales. Journal of Animal Ecology, 38, 35–51.
- , , , , , , , , , , , , & (2008) Birth of a biome: insights into the assembly and maintenance of the Australian arid zone biota. Molecular Ecology, 17, 4398–4417.
- , & (1998) Seed dispersal and the holocene migration of woodland herbs. Ecological Monographs, 68, 325–347.
- , & (2000) Long-distance seed dispersal in plant populations. American Journal of Botany, 87, 1217–1227.
- , , & (2004) Soil biota and exotic plant invasion. Nature, 427, 731–733.
- (2000) Reptiles and amphibians of Australia. Reed New Holland, Sydney, NSW.
- & (2009) Inferring the past to predict the future: climate modelling predictions and phylogeography for the freshwater gastropod Radix balthica (Pulmonata, Basommatophora). Molecular Ecology, 18, 534–544.
- (2006) Effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on amphibians: a review and prospectus. Biological Conservation, 128, 231–240.
- & (2001) Range shifts and adaptive responses to quaternary climate change. Science, 292, 673–679.
- , & (2005) Evolutionary responses to changing climate. Ecology, 86, 1704–1714.
- & (2010) Rapid isolation and characterisation of microsatellite loci from a widespread Australian gecko, the Tree Dtella, Gehyra variegata. Conservation Genetics Resources, 2, 349–351.
- & (2012) Levels of dispersal and tail loss in an Australian gecko (Gehyra variegata) are associated with differences in forest structure. Australian Journal of Zoology, 59, 170–176.
- , & (2010) The art of modelling range-shifting species. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 1, 330–342.
- & (2009) MigClim: predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate. Diversity and Distributions, 15, 590–601.
- , , & (2010) Using ecological niche modelling to infer past, present and future environmental suitability for Leiopelma hochstetteri, an endangered New Zealand native frog. Biological Conservation, 143, 1375–1384.
- (1998) Conservation biology: inbreeding leads to extinction. Nature, 392, 441–442.
- , & (2004) Introduction to: conservation genetics , 4th edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
- & (2002) Large-scale dynamics in colonization and extinction for breeding birds in Britain. Journal of Animal Ecology, 71, 390–399.
- , , & (2007) Adaptive versus non-adaptive phenotypic plasticity and the potential for contemporary adaptation in new environments. Functional Ecology, 21, 394–407.
- , , , & (2008) Climate change and evolution: disentangling environmental and genetic responses. Molecular Ecology, 17, 167–178.
- & (1986) Minimum viable populations: process of species extinction. Conservation biology: the science of scarcity and diversity (ed. by M.E. Soulé), pp. 19–34. Sinauer, Sunderland, MA.
- (2001) FSTAT, a program to estimate an test gene diversities and fixation indices (Version 2.9.3).
- , , , , , & (2006) Making better biogeographical predictions of species' distributions. Journal of Applied Ecology, 43, 386–392.
- (2004) Bioclimate envelope models: what they detect and what they hide. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 13, 469–471.
- (2011) Habitat loss, the dynamics of biodiversity, and a perspective on conservation. Ambio, 40, 248–255.
- , , , & (2007) Biotic interactions improve prediction of boreal bird distributions at macro-scales. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 16, 754–763.
- & (2009) Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: a review of 22 years of recommendations. Biological Conservation, 142, 14–32.
- (1990) Population ecology and life history of the arboreal gecko Gehyra variegata in arid Australia. Herpetological Monographs, 4, 30–60.
- & (2006) Microsatellite DNA markers for Australian geckos. Conservation Genetics, 7, 795–798.
- , & (2007) The tales of two geckos: does dispersal prevent extinction in recently fragmented populations. Molecular Ecology, 16, 3299–3312.
- (2000) Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent? Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 15, 56–61.
- (2003) Climate change and Australia: trends, projections and impacts. Austral Ecology, 28, 423–443.
- IPCC (2007) Summary for policymakers. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ed. by S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller), pp. 13–14. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, New York, NY, USA.
- , & (2004) How fast and far might tree species migrate in the eastern United States due to climate change? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 13, 209–219.
- (1987) Pattern recognition, 1st edn. BSP Professional Books, Oxford, UK.
- & (2000) Why are there so many coexisting species of lizards in Australian deserts? Oecologia, 125, 127–141.
- & (2010) COLONY: a program for parentage and sibship inference from multilocus genotype data. Molecular Ecology Resources, 10, 551–555.
- & (2004) Mapping the fundamental niche: physiology, climate and the distribution of a nocturnal lizard. Ecology, 85, 3119–3131.
- & (2009) Mechanistic niche modelling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species ranges. Ecology Letters, 12, 334–350.
- (1979) Karyotypic evolution in Gehyra (Gekkonidae: Reptilia) I. The Gehyra variegata-Punctata complex. Australian Journal of Zoology, 27, 373–393.
- , & (1988) Biology of Oedura reticulata and Gehyra variegata (Gekkonidae) in an isolated woodland of Western Australia. Journal of Herpetology, 22, 401–412.
- , & (2007) Coupling genetic and ecological-niche models to examine how past population distributions contribute to divergence. Current Biology, 17, 940–946.
- (1993) Risks of population extinction from demographic and environmental stochasticity and random catastrophes. The American Naturalist, 142, 911–927.
- (2005) Genetic approaches for estimating the effective size of populations. Journal of Wildlife Management, 69, 1385–1399.
- (2006) Cenozoic climatic change and the development of the arid vegetation in Australia. Journal of Arid Environments, 66, 533–563.
- & (1995) Influence of maternal food availability on offspring dispersal. Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology, 37, 413–418.
- (1997) Competition and dispersal from multiple nests. Ecology, 78, 873–883.
- & (2009) Comparing niche- and process-based models to reduce prediction uncertainty in species range shifts under climate change. Ecology, 90, 1301–1313.
- (1987) The population biology of Gehyra (Gekkonidae, Reptilia). 2. Individual-movements and colonization by Gehyra-variegata and Gehyra-nana. Australian Journal of Zoology, 35, 587–596.
- (1992) The population biology of Gehyra (Gekkonidae). III. Patterns of microgeographic variation. Journal of Evolutionary Biology, 5, 661–676.Direct Link:
- & (2012) Intense or spatially heterogeneous predation can select against prey dispersal. PLoS ONE, 71, e928924.
- & (2000) Spatial patterns of seed dispersal, their determinants and consequences for recruitment. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 15, 278–285.
- , & (2001) The effect of climate change on tropical rainforest vegetation pattern. Ecological Modelling, 145, 211–224.
- & (2006) Genalex 6: genetic analysis in Excel. Population genetic software for teaching and research. Molecular Ecology Notes, 6, 288–295.
- , , & (2008) Estimating survival rates of uncatchable animals: the myth of high juvenille mortality in reptiles. Ecology, 89, 607–611.
- , & (2010) Using isolation by distance and effective density to estimate dispersal scales in anemonefish. Evolution, 64, 2688–2700.
- , , et al. (1997) Plant migration and climate change. American Scientist, 85, 464–473.
- & (1995) GENEPOP (Version 1.2): population genetics software for exact tests and ecumenicism. Journal of Heredity, 86, 248–249.
- (1997) Genetic differentiation and estimation of gene flow from F-statistics under isolation by distance. Genetics, 145, 1219–1228.
- (2000) Genetic differentiation between individuals. Journal of Evolutionary Biology, 13, 58–62.Direct Link:
- (1998) Spatial scale of genetic structure and an indirect estimate of gene flow in eelgrass, Zostera marina. Evolution, 52, 330–343.
- (1995) The image processing handbook, 2nd edn. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL.
- (1998) Demographics and population persistence of Gehyra variegata (Gekkonidae) following habitat fragmentation. Journal of Herpetology, 32, 153–162.
- , , , , , , , , & (2010) Applications of landscape genetics in conservation biology: concepts and challenges. Conservation Genetics, 11, 375–385.
- , & (2011) An evolutionary process that assembles phenotypes through space rather than through time. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 108, 5708–5711.
- (1995) Butterfly mobility. Chapman & Hall, London.
- , , et al. (2010) Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches. Science, 328, 894–899.
- , , & (2009) Molecular phylogeny of Australian Gehyra (Squamata: Gekkonidae) and taxonomic revision of Gehyra variegata in south-eastern Australia. Zootaxa, 2277, 14–32.
- (2005) Seeing ghosts: the effect of unsampled populations on migration rates estimated for sampled populations. Molecular Ecology, 14, 67–73.
- & (1989) A comparison of three indirect methods for estimating average levels of gene flow. Evolution, 43, 1349–1368.
- , , , & (2010) Use of resistance surfaces for landscape genetic studies: considerations for parameterization and analysis. Molecular Ecology, 19, 3576–3591.
- , , , & (2010) Landscape genetics: where are we now? Molecular Ecology, 19, 3496–3514.
- , , & (2001) The impact of habitat fragmentation on dispersal of Cunningham's skink (Egernia cunninghami): evidence from allelic and genotypic analyses of microsatellites. Molecular Ecology, 10, 867–878.
- , , & (2001) ‘Neighbourhood’ size, dispersal and density estimates in the prickly forest skink (Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae) using individual genetic and demographic methods. Molecular Ecology, 10, 1917–1927.
- & (1996) Numerous transposed sequences of mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I-II in aphids of the genus Sitobion (Hemiptera: Aphididae). Molecular Biology and Evolution, 13, 510–524.
- , , , , , , & (2007) Australian climate change projections derived from simulations performed for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. Australian Meteorological Magazine, 56, 131–152.
- , & (2009) Nesting lizards (Bassiana duperreyi) compensate partly, but not completely, for climate change. Ecology, 90, 17–22.
- , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , & (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427, 145–148.
- , , , & (2005) Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 102, 8245–8250.
- & (2008) Future projections of winter rainfall in southeast Australia using a statistical downscaling technique. Climatic Change, 86, 165–187.
- , , , , & (2007) Reduced plant–soil feedback of plant species expanding their range as compared to natives. Journal of Ecology, 95, 1050–1057.
- (2008) Keeping up with a warming world; assessing the rate of adaptation to climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 275, 649–659.
- (1928) Zusammensetzun von Population und Korrelationsercheinung vom Standpunkt der Verbungslehre aus betrachtet. Hereditas, 11, 65–106.Direct Link:
- , , , , & (2007) Locating Pleistocene refugia: comparing phylogeographic and ecological niche model predictions. PLoS ONE, 2, e563.
- , , , , , , , & (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature, 416, 389–395.
- (2005) Estimation of effective population sizes from data on genetic markers. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 360, 1395–1409.
- (2009) A new method for estimating effective population sizes from a single sample of multilocus genotypes. Molecular Ecology, 18, 2148–2164.
- , , , , & (2007) Compatible genetic and ecological estimates of dispersal rates in insect (Coenagrion mercuriale: Odonata: Zygoptera) populations: analysis of ‘neighbourhood size’ using a more precise estimator. Molecular Ecology, 16, 737–751.
- (1943) Isolation by distance. Genetics, 28, 114–138.