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Appendix S1 Supplementary figures and tables.

Figure S1. (a) A comparison of the different resolutions of the HydroBasins dataset (level 4, level 6 and level 8) for the Elbe River Basin (green); (b) distribution of species occurrence frequencies (defined as the total number of positive species occurrences (presence in a catchment = 1, absence = 0) across the studied HydroBasin level 8 catchments.

Figure S2. Parameter correlation matrix.

Figure S3. Illustration of the monthly thermal niche approach.

Figure S4. A comparison of the species richness of 2050s distribution patterns for common (a–b) and rare (c–d) freshwater species across European catchments for the no-dispersal scenario and the free-dispersal scenario using alternative approaches: SDMs vs. monthly thermal niche approach (a–b) and SDM-parameters based vs. monthly thermal niche approach (c–d).

Figure S5. Current and SDM- based future patterns of common freshwater species across European catchments: (a–c) fish, (d–f) molluscs, (g–i) plants, (j–l) odonates and (m–o) amphibians.

Figure S6. Distribution of rare freshwater species across major European river basins: the bar plot shows the current proportion of freshwater species that occur in each basin, while the filled and empty squares indicate the proportion of species predicted to occur under 2050s climate based on the A1b emission scenario for the no-dispersal and the free-dispersal scenario, respectively.

Figure S7. Distribution of rare freshwater species across European freshwater ecoregions: the bar plot shows the current proportion of freshwater species that occur in each ecoregion, while the filled and empty squares indicate the proportion of species predicted to occur under 2050s climate based on the A1b emission scenario for the no-dispersal and the free-dispersal scenario, respectively.

Figure S8. Distribution of common freshwater species across European countries (countries having area> 2000 km2 are considered): the bar plot shows the current proportion of common freshwater species that occur in each individual country, while the filled and empty squares indicate the proportion of species predicted to occur under 2050s climate based on the A1b emission scenario for the no-dispersal and the free-dispersal scenario, respectively.

Figure S9. Distribution of rare freshwater species across European countries (countries having area> 2000 km2 are considered): the bar plot shows the current proportion of freshwater species that occur in each individual country, while the filled and empty squares indicate the proportion of species predicted to occur under 2050s climate based on the A1b emission scenario for the no-dispersal and the free-dispersal scenario, respectively.

Figure S10. Catchments with non-analogue climates by 2050s (red).

Figure S11. (a) The European protected area network (green, Natura 2000 and WDPAs with IUCN categories I–IV) and (b) the areas that are currently suitable and predicted to be suitable by the 2050s (blue) for the ‘gap’ species retaining parts of their current range in the future (see Table S4–S5 for species list) and the urgent priority catchments for these species (red).

Figure S12. Boxplots of the Area Under the receiver operating Curve (AUC) (a) and of the True Skill Statistic (TSS) (b) per taxa group studied (the least represented taxa, crayfish and turtles, have been excluded from the analysis).

Table S1. The number of European freshwater species predicted to lose more than 90% of their current range.

Table S2. Rare freshwater species predicted to lose suitability across the entire current range area by 2050s, paired with no suitable catchments in Europe by 2050s.

Table S3. Current species richness and the 2050s perspective for common freshwater species across European countries.

Table S4. List of common freshwater ‘gap’ species (species in urgent priority catchments are marked with an asterisk).

Table S5. List of rare freshwater ‘gap’ species in urgent priority catchments.

ddi12232-sup-0002-AppendixS2.xlsxapplication/msexcel170K 

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