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Appendix S1. Base and taylor models, excluding the volcker chairmanship.

Appendix S2. Base and taylor models, excluding the volcker chairmanship and the last two quarters of each election cycle.

Appendix S3. Base and taylor models with chairmen dummy variables.

Appendix S4. Base and taylor models, including the obama presidency.

Appendix S5. Forward-looking taylor models with alternative measures of inflationary expectations.

Appendix S6. Inflationary surprise taylor models with alternative measures of inflationary expectations.

Appendix S7. Base and taylor models with four lagged dv. base models with arima.

Appendix S8. Base and taylor models, using federal government expenditures as fiscal control.

Appendix S9. Base and taylor models, excluding the last quarter before each election.

Appendix S10. Base and taylor models, excluding the last two quarters before each election.

Appendix S11. Base and taylor models, controlling for the party which first appointed the sitting fed chairman.

Appendix S12. Base model, estimated in subsamples of fed chairman appointed by either democratic or republican presidents.

Appendix S13. Alternative explanation.

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