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Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramatically lower than previously predicted

  1. Erin A. Mordecai1,*,
  2. Krijn P. Paaijmans2,
  3. Leah R. Johnson3,
  4. Christian Balzer1,†,
  5. Tal Ben-Horin4,
  6. Emily de Moor5,
  7. Amy McNally5,
  8. Samraat Pawar6,
  9. Sadie J. Ryan7,
  10. Thomas C. Smith1,
  11. Kevin D. Lafferty1,8

Article first published online: 11 OCT 2012

DOI: 10.1111/ele.12015

Issue

Ecology Letters

Ecology Letters

Volume 16, Issue 1, pages 22–30, January 2013

Additional Information

How to Cite

Ecology Letters (2013) 16: 22–30

Author Information

  1. 1

    Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology Department, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA

  2. 2

    Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Entomology, Penn State University, Merkle Lab, PA, USA

  3. 3

    Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA

  4. 4

    Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA

  5. 5

    Geography Department, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA

  6. 6

    Department of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA

  7. 7

    Department of Environmental and Forest Biology and Division of Environmental Science, College of Environmental Science and Forestry, State University of New York, Syracuse, NY, USA

  8. 8

    Western Ecological Research Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA

  1. †

    Deceased.

*Correspondence: E-mail: Mordecai@lifesci.ucsb.edu

  1. †

    Deceased.

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 11 DEC 2012
  2. Article first published online: 11 OCT 2012
  3. Manuscript Accepted: 11 SEP 2012
  4. Manuscript Revised: 5 SEP 2012
  5. Manuscript Revised: 11 JUN 2012
  6. Manuscript Received: 30 APR 2012

Funded by

  • Luce Environmental Science to Solutions
  • NSF. Grant Numbers: #EF-0553768, EF-0914384, DGE-1144085
  • Michael J. Connell Trust

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Keywords:

  • Anopheles ;
  • climate change;
  • disease ecology;
  • malaria;
  • Plasmodium falciparum ;
  • temperature

Abstract

The ecology of mosquito vectors and malaria parasites affect the incidence, seasonal transmission and geographical range of malaria. Most malaria models to date assume constant or linear responses of mosquito and parasite life-history traits to temperature, predicting optimal transmission at 31 °C. These models are at odds with field observations of transmission dating back nearly a century. We build a model with more realistic ecological assumptions about the thermal physiology of insects. Our model, which includes empirically derived nonlinear thermal responses, predicts optimal malaria transmission at 25 °C (6 °C lower than previous models). Moreover, the model predicts that transmission decreases dramatically at temperatures > 28 °C, altering predictions about how climate change will affect malaria. A large data set on malaria transmission risk in Africa validates both the 25 °C optimum and the decline above 28 °C. Using these more accurate nonlinear thermal-response models will aid in understanding the effects of current and future temperature regimes on disease transmission.

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