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eva12049-sup-0001-DataS1.xlsxapplication/msexcel18KData S1: List of data source for dispersal measurements.
eva12049-sup-0002-DataS2.pdfapplication/PDF242KData S2: Supplementary material and supplementary results.
eva12049-sup-0003-TableA1-A2-FigA1-A10.docxWord document707K

Table A1. Summary of 64 generalized linear models (GLM) with each of four dispersal measurements as the response and each of 16 species traits and their quadratic effect proposed as explanatory variables.

Table A2. Comparison of the predictive models to others top-ranked models in the selection on GLM. In each case, model 1 is the model used for predictions. R2 is unadjusted.

Figure A1. Range of trait values in subset of data comprising butterfly species with measured dispersal compared to range observed in 142 butterfly species of N-W Europe. Black: range with 142 species (scaled for reference); green: range in species with measured mean dispersal distances; dark blue: range in species with estimated probability of long-distance dispersal; light blue: range in species with measured dispersal propensity; orange: range in species with estimated gene flow.

Figure A2. Illustration of a polynomial effect (dashed black curves = 95% CI) of the flight period in a predictive model for the probability of long distance dispersal in butterflies. Butterflies with known probability of long-distance dispersal have short to medium flight periods (4–15 weeks) while this dispersal measurement should be predicted for species with short to very long flight periods (3–32 weeks). Green lines indicate how we enlarged the range of values used for the predictions to 3–17 weeks, based on the standard deviation of the effect.

Figure A3. Illustration of the significant effects of traits and interactions between traits retained to predict the mean dispersal distance in butterflies. Mean dispersal distance is shown on a log km scale. The model is detailed in Table 3 of main text. Effects are shown with 95% CI (dashed curves), except for interaction.

Figure A4. Illustration of the significant effects of traits and interactions between traits retained to predict the frequency of long-distance dispersal in butterflies. Frequency of long-distance dispersal is shown on a log scale. The model is detailed in Table 3 of main text. Effects are shown with 95% CI (dashed curves), except for interaction.

Figure A5. Illustration of the significant effects of traits and interactions between traits retained to predict the dispersal propensity in butterflies. Dispersal propensity is 1−√proportion of residents. The model is detailed in Table 3 of main text. Effects are shown with 95% CI (dashed curves), except for interactions where CI is not shown.

Figure A6. Illustration of the significant effects of traits and interactions between traits retained to predict the intensity of gene flow in butterflies. Gene flow is −√FST. The model is detailed in Table 3 of main text. Effects are shown with 95% CI (dashed curves), except for interactions.

Figure A7. Mean dispersal distance predicted from life-history traits and wing size for 138 of the 142 butterfly species of N-W Europe, and 95% CI of the predictions. Details of the model are shown in Table 3 of main text. Red symbols show the observed value for 30 of those species.

Figure A8. Mean dispersal distance predicted from life-history traits and wing size for 124 of the 142 butterfly species of N-W Europe, and 95% CI of the predictions. Details of the model are shown in Table 3 of main text. Red symbols show the observed value for 29 of those species.

Figure A9. Dispersal propensity predicted from life-history traits for 113 of the 142 butterfly species of N-W Europe, and 95% CI of the predictions. Details of the model are shown in Table 3 of main text. Red symbols show the observed value for 25 of those species.

Figure A10. Gene flow predicted from life-history traits for 137 of the 142 butterfly species of N-W Europe, and 95% CI of the predictions. Details of the model are shown in Table 3 of main text. Red symbols show the observed value for 26 of those species.

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