Authors contributed equally.
Climate change, adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity: the problem and the evidence
Article first published online: 8 JAN 2014
© 2013 The Authors. Evolutionary Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Special Issue: Climate change, adaptation and phenotypic plasticity
Volume 7, Issue 1, pages 1–14, January 2014
How to Cite
Merilä, J. and Hendry, A. P. (2014), Climate change, adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity: the problem and the evidence. Evolutionary Applications, 7: 1–14. doi: 10.1111/eva.12137
- Issue published online: 8 JAN 2014
- Article first published online: 8 JAN 2014
- Manuscript Accepted: 8 NOV 2013
- Manuscript Received: 2 NOV 2013
- Academy of Finland . Grant Numbers: 250435, 263722, 265211
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
- 2013. The evolution of quantitative traits in complex environments. Heredity 112:4–12. , , , , and .
- 2009. Biological invasions and phenotypic evolution: a quantitative genetic perspective. Biological Invasions 11:2243–2250.
- 2006. Global genetic change tracks global climate warming in Drosophila subobscura. Science 313:1773–1775. , , , , and
- 2011. Molecular spandrels: test of adaptation at the genetic level. Nature Reviews Genetics 12:767–780. , and
- 2006. Inferring natural selection in a fossil threespine stickleback. Paleobiology 23:526–577. , , and
- 1984. Perturbation experiments in community ecology – theory and practice. Ecology 65:1–13. , , and
- 2007. An experimental test of evolutionary trade-offs during temperature adaptation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences U.S.A. 104:8649–8654. , and .
- 2013. A practical guide to measuring local adaptation. Ecology Letters 16:1195–1205. , , , and
- 2001. Adjustment to climate change is constrained by arrival date in a long-distance migrant bird. Nature 411:296–298. , and
- 2014. Climate change and mammals: evolutionary versus plastic responses. Evolutionary Applications 7:29–41. , and .
- 2001. Genetic shift in photoperiodic response correlated with global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences U.S.A 98:14509–14511. , and .
- 2011. Whither PST? The approximation of QST by PST in evolutionary and conservation biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology 24:1160–1168.
- 2005. Natural selection and genetic variation for reproductive reaction norms in a wild bird population. Evolution 59:1362–1371. , , , and
- 1995. Evolution and extinction in a changing environment: a quantitative-genetic analysis. Evolution 49:151–163. , and
- 2014. Climate change and timing of avian breeding and migration: evolutionary versus plastic responses. Evolutionary Applications 7:15–28. , and .
- 2008. Adaptive phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change in a wild bird population. Science 320:800–803. , , , , , and
- 2008. 4000 Years of phenotypic change in an island bird: heterogeneity of selection over three microevolutionary timescales. Evolution 62:2393–2410. , , , , and
- 2004. Phenotypic consequences of 1000 generations of selection at elevated CO2 in a green alga. Nature 431:566–569. , and
- 2014. Evolutionary potential of marine phytoplankton under ocean acidification. Evolutioanry Applications 7:140–155. , , and
- 1995. Phenotypic similarity and the evolutionary significance of countergradient variation. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 10:248–252. , and
- 2001. Rapid, local adaptation of zooplankton behavior to changes in predation pressure in the absence of neutral genetic changes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 98:6256–6260. , , , , , and
- 2014. Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change in fish. Evolutionary Applications 7:68–87. , and .
- 2011. Using time series analysis to characterize evolutionary and plastic responses to environmental change: a case study of a shift toward earlier migration date in sockeye salmon. American Naturalist 178:755–773. , , and
- 2007. Host–parasite ‘Red Queen’ dynamics archived in pond sediment. Nature 450:870–873. , , , , , , and
- 2011. Comparisons between QST and FST –how wrong have we been? Molecular Ecology 20:4830–4389. , , and
- 2008. Genetic basis of fitness differences in natural populations. Nature 452:169–175. , and
- 1986. Natural Selection in the Wild. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
- 2008. A genome-scan method to identify selected loci appropriate for both dominant and codominant markers: a Bayesian perspective. Genetics 180:977–993. , and
- 2011. A map of local adaptation in Arabidopsis thaliana. Science 334:86–89. , , , , , and
- 2012. Genetics of climate change adaptation. Annual Review of Genetics 46:185–208. , and
- 2007. Rapid evolution of flowering time by an annual plant in response to a climate fluctuation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104:1278–1282. , , and
- 2014. Evolutionary and plastic responses to climate change in terrestrial plant populations. Evolutionary Applications 7:123–139. , , and .
- 2010. Long-term ecological dynamics: reciprocal insights from natural and anthropogenic gradients. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 272:2105–2115. , and
- 2007. The multifarious effects of dispersal and gene flow on contemporary adaptation. Functional Ecology 21:434–443. , , and
- 2008. Climate change and evolution: disentangling environmental and genetic responses. Molecular Ecology 17:167–178. , , , , and
- 1995. Adaptive plasticity and plasticity as an adaptation: a selective review of plasticity in animal morphology and life-history. Oikos 74:3–17. , and
- 1979. The spandrels of San Marco and the Panglossian paradigm: a critique of the adaptationist programme. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 205:581–598. , and
- 2005. Environmental change, phenotypic plasticity, and genetic compensation. American Naturalist 166:E115–E123.
- 2010. The misuse of BLUP in ecology and evolution. American Naturalist 175:116–125. , , , , and
- 2000. Population differences in early life-history traits in grayling. Journal of Evolutionary Biology 13:897–905. , and
- 2002. QST > = ≠ < FST? Trends in Ecology and Evolution 17:502.
- 1999. The pace of modern life: measuring rates of contemporary microevolution. Evolution 53:1637–1653. , and
- 2008. Human influences on rates of phenotypic change in wild animal populations. Molecular Ecology 17:20–29. , , and .
- 2009. A quantitative survey of local adaptation and fitness trade-offs. American Naturalist 173:579–588.
- 2004. Power and potential bias in field studies of natural selection. Evolution 58:479–485. , and
- 2007. Towards genetic markers in animal populations as biomonitors for human-induced environmental change. Ecology Letters 10:63–76. , and
- 1999. Heritable variation and evolution under favourable and unfavourable conditions. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 14:96–101. , and
- 1990. The microevolutionary consequences of climate change. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 5:311–315.
- 2008. Evolution toward a new adaptive optimum: phenotypic evolution in a fossil stickleback lineage. Evolution 62:700–710. , , and
- 1983. Environmental component of morphological differentiation in birds. Science 221:184–186.
- 2011. Climate change drives microevolution in a wild bird. Nature Communications 2:208. , , , , and
- 2013. driftsel: an R package for detecting signals of natural selection in quantitative traits. Molecular Ecology Resources 13:746–754. , , , , and
- 2004. Conceptual issues in local adaptation. Ecology Letters 7:1225–1241. , and
- 2012. Experimental evolution. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 27:547–560. , , , , , and
- 2002. Inbreeding effects in wild populations. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 17:230–241. , and
- 2001. The strength of phenotypic selection in natural populations. American Naturalist 157:245–261. , , , , , , et al.
- 2012. Synthetic analyses of phenotypic selection in natural populations: lessons, limitations and future directions. Evolutionary Ecology 26:1101–1118. , , , and
- 2014. Rapid evolution of quantitative traits: theoretical perspectives. Evolutionary Applications 7:169–191. , and .
- 2003. When environmental variation short-circuits natural selection. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 18:207–209. , , and
- 2008. New answers for old questions: the evolutionary quantitative genetics of wild animal populations. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 39:525–548. , , and
- 2007. Detecting and managing fisheries-induced evolution. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 22:652–659. , and
- 2008. The role of fisheries-induced evolution. Science 320:47–48. , and
- 1976. Natural selection and random genetic drift in phenotypic evolution. Evolution 30:314–334.
- 1992. Neutral theory of quantitative genetic variance in an island model with local extinction and colonization. Evolution 46:381–389.
- 2012. Delayed phenology and reduced fitness associated with climate change in a wild hibernator. Nature 489:554–557. , , , , and
- 2012. The genetic differentiation at quantitative trait loci under local adaptation. Molecular Ecology 21:1548–1566. , and
- 2006. Contrasting patterns of body shape and neutral genetic divergence in marine and lake populations of threespine sticklebacks. Journal of Evolutionary Biology 19:1803–1812. , , , and
- 2008. Comparative studies of quantitative trait and neutral marker divergence: a meta-analysis. Journal of Evolutionary Biology 21:1–17. , , , and
- 2012. Adaptive evolution of a key phytoplankton species to ocean acidification. Nature Geoscience 5:346–351. , , and
- 1993. Evolution and extinction in response to environmental change. In: P. M. Kareiva, J. G. Kingsolver, and R. B. Huey, eds. Biotic Interactions and Global Change, pp. 234–250. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, Massachusetts. , and
- 1998. Genetics and Analysis of Quantitative Traits. Sinauer, Sunderland, Massachusetts. , and
- 2011. The ecological causes of evolution. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 26:514–522.
- 2009. The genetics of quantitative traits: challenges and prospects. Nature Reviews Genetics 10:565–577. , , and
- 2002. Adaptive population divergence: markers, QTL and traits. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 17:285–291. , and
- 2012. Evolution in response to climate change: in pursuit of the missing evidence. BioEssays 34:811–818.
- 2001. Explaining stasis: microevolutionary studies in natural populations. Genetica 112:199–222. , , and
- 2012. Directional selection in temporally replicated studies is remarkably consistent. Evolution 66:435–442. , and
- 2010. The danger of applying the breeder's equation in observation studies of natural populations. Journal of Evolutionary Biology 23:2277–2288. , , and .
- 2012. Recombination rate variation and speciation: theoretical predictions and empirical results in rabbits and mice. Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences 367:409–421. , and
- 2005. Selection on heritable phenotypic plasticity in a wild bird population. Science 310:304–306. , , , and
- 2012. Adaptive evolution: evaluating empirical support for theoretical predictions. Nature Reviews in Genetics 13:867–877. , , and
- 2011. A new method to uncover signatures of divergent and stabilizing selection in quantitative traits. Genetics 189:621–632. , , , , and
- 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37–42. , and
- 2010. Differences in spawning date between populations of common frog reveal local adaptation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 107:8292–8297. , , , and
- 2006. Implications of the difference between true and predicted breeding values for the study of natural selection and micro-evolution. Journal of Evolutionary Biology 19:309–320.
- 2000. Climatic effects on breeding and morphology: evidence for phenotypic plasticity. Journal of Animal Ecology 69:395–404. , , and
- 1996. Environmental changes affecting the migratory timing of American shad and sockeye salmon. Ecology 77:1151–1162. , and
- 2003. Genetic and plastic responses of a northern mammal to climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 270:591–596. , , , and
- 2006. Responding to environmental change: plastic responses vary little in a synchronous breeder. Proceedings of Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 273:2713–2719. , , , , , and
- 2014. Climate change in the oceans: evolutionary versus. phenotypically plastic responses. Evolutionary Applications 7:104–122. .
- 2008. Molecular ecology of global change. Molecular Ecology 16:3973–3992. , and
- 2005. Selection in nature: experimental manipulations in natural populations. Integrative and Comparative Biology 45:456–462. , and
- 2007. Genome-wide identification of genes under selection: gene transcription Qst scan in diverging Atlantic salmon subpopulations. Genetics 177:1011–1022. , , and
- 2002. Inbreeding and experience affect response to climate change by endangered woodpeckers. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences 269:1153–1159. , , , and
- 2014. Contemporary climate change and terrestrial invertebrates: evolutionary versus plastic changes. Evolutionary Applications 7:56–67. , and .
- 2001. Why the null matters: statistical tests, random walks and evolution. Genetica 112–113:105–125. , and
- 2009. It's about time: the temporal dynamics of phenotypic selection in the wild. Ecology Letters 12:1261–1276. , , and
- 2011. Differences in the temporal dynamics of phenotypic selection among fitness components in the wild. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences 278:1572–1580. , , , and
- 2000. Effects of beaver on the thermal biology of an amphibian. Ecology Letters 3:483–486. , and
- 2014. Evolutionary and plastic responses of freshwater invertebrates to climate change: realized patterns and future potential. Evolutionary Applications 7:42–55. , , and .
- 2005. Using genome scans of DNA polymorphism to infer adaptive population divergence. Molecular Ecology 14:671–688.
- 2007. Evolutionary response to size-selective mortality in an exploited fish population. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 274:1015–1022. , , and
- 2014. Climate warming and Bergmann's rule through time: is there any evidence? Evolutionary Applications 7:156–168. , and .
- 2008. Bergmann's Rule and climate change: disentangling environmental and genetic responses in a wild bird population. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences U. S. A 105:13492–13496. , , , , and
- 2005. A rapid shift in a classic clinal pattern in Drosophila reflecting climate change. Science 308:691–693. , , , , and
- 2014. Plasticity and genetic adaptation mediate amphibian and reptile responses to climate change. Evolutionary Applications 7:88–103. , , and .
- 2007. Adaptive microevolutionary responses to simulated global warming in Simocephalus vetulus: a mesocosm study. Global Change Biology 13:878–886. , , , and
- 1990. The causes of natural selection. Evolution 44:1947–1955. , and
- 2003. Developmental Plasticity and Evolution. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
- 2008. Evolutionary inference from QST. Molecular Ecology 17:1885–1896.
- 2012. Influence of experimental venue on phenotype: multiple traits reveal multiple answers. Functional Ecology 26:513–521. , and
- 2012. Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change. Nature 485:494–497. , , , , , , et al.