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Transform high seas management to build climate resilience in marine seafood supply

Authors

  • William W L Cheung,

    Corresponding author
    1. Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program & Changing Ocean Research Unit, Global Fisheries Cluster, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
    • Correspondence:

      William W L Cheung

      Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program & Changing Ocean Research Unit, Global Fisheries Cluster, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada, V6T 1Z4

      Tel.: +1 604 827 3756

      Fax: +1 604 822 8934

      E-mail: w.cheung@oceans.ubc.ca

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  • Miranda C Jones,

    1. Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program & Changing Ocean Research Unit, Global Fisheries Cluster, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
    2. Zoology Department, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
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  • Vicky W Y Lam,

    1. Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program & Changing Ocean Research Unit, Global Fisheries Cluster, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
    2. Sea Around Us, Global Fisheries Cluster, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
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  • Dana D Miller,

    1. Fisheries Economics Research Unit & OceanCanada Partnership, Global Fisheries Cluster, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
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  • Yoshitaka Ota,

    1. Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program & Changing Ocean Research Unit, Global Fisheries Cluster, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
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  • Louise Teh,

    1. Fisheries Economics Research Unit & OceanCanada Partnership, Global Fisheries Cluster, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
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  • Ussif R Sumaila

    1. Fisheries Economics Research Unit & OceanCanada Partnership, Global Fisheries Cluster, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
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Abstract

Climate change is projected to redistribute fisheries resources, resulting in tropical regions suffering decreases in seafood production. While sustainably managing marine ecosystems contributes to building climate resilience, these solutions require transformation of ocean governance. Recent studies and international initiatives suggest that conserving high seas biodiversity and fish stocks will have ecological and economic benefits; however, implications for seafood security under climate change have not been examined. Here, we apply global-scale mechanistic species distribution models to 30 major straddling fish stocks to show that transforming high seas fisheries governance could increase resilience to climate change impacts. By closing the high seas to fishing or cooperatively managing its fisheries, we project that catches in exclusive economic zones (EEZs) would likely increase by around 10% by 2050 relative to 2000 under climate change (representative concentration pathway 4.5 and 8.5), compensating for the expected losses (around −6%) from ‘business-as-usual’. Specifically, high seas closure increases the resilience of fish stocks, as indicated by a mean species abundance index, by 30% in EEZs. We suggest that improving high seas fisheries governance would increase the resilience of coastal countries to climate change.

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