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Table S1. Model selection results from a priori candidate models describing fragmentation (forest cover and edge density) and weather (temperature and precipitation) effects on a subset of nests which excludes those that failed for any reason other than predation (e.g., storms, abandonment, adult mortality). Northern Cardinals were not included in this analysis because only one nest failed from causes other than predation, so the results would be essentially identical to those presented in Table 2.

Figure S1. Model-averaged predictions of period nest survival (±95% CI) for Acadian Flycatchers and Indigo Buntings as a function of precipitation for a subset of nests which excludes those that failed for reasons other than predation (e.g., storms, abandonment, adult mortality). All other variables were held constant at their mean value. Estimates to the left of the axis break are for the 0–95th percentiles of precipitation values, and those to the right of the axis break are for observed extreme rain events.

Figure S2. Model-based productivity per nest attempt (95% CI) as a function of temperature at 5th, median, and 95th values of forest cover for (a) Acadian Flycatchers and (b) Indigo Buntings for a subset of nests which excludes those that failed for reasons other than predation (e.g., storms, abandonment, adult mortality). Brood parasitism rates are held at their estimated rate for each level of landscape forest cover and mean edge density is held at observed values within ±5% of each level of forest cover. All other variables were held constant at their means for model predictions. Vertical dashed lines represent 5th and 95th percentiles of observed values of temperature.

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