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gcb12200-sup-0001-FigS1.jpgimage/jpg326KFigure S1. Early winter temperature in North Europe. (a) The spatial correlation of December temperature in southern Finland (defined within the black line on the map) during years 1979–2009 based on Climate Explorer of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (http://climexp.knmi.nl). (b) The mean early winter (16 November to 15 January) temperature in southern Finland (defined in map b; mean of daily means of all 10 × 10 km grids in the study area) during winters 1979/1980–2009/2010. The line represents the increasing trend in temperature (beta = +0.12 ± 0.06 °C, F = 4.85, df = 29, P = 0.035).
gcb12200-sup-0002-TableS1.docWord document44KTable S1. AICc differences in two different models (Model 1 = direct effect of temperature, Model 2 = temperature difference between two subsequent years) in each country in tufted duck, goldeneye and goosander. Models where ∆AICc was larger than 2 are in bold.

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