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Figure S1. Colour version of Fig. 1.

Figure S2. Boosted regression tree model predictions for an exemplar species, Betula nana.

Figure S3. Boosted regression tree response curves for two exemplar species.

Figure S4. The relationship between soil moisture, topographic wetness index, and mesotopography.

Table S1. Prevalence of the species for which species distribution models were calculated.

Table S2. Best-fit models for mid- and late-season soil moisture.

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